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CREA : Lower November Home Sales Signal Impact of New Mortgage Rules


Under Market Updates

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December 26th, 2016

Recent regulatory measures taken by the federal government have dampened a “wide swath” of housing markets in Canada and pushed some first-time buyers to the sidelines, says the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) in its sales report for the month of November. November’s results, which show a decline of 5.3% in sales nationwide, suggest that the housing sector will not be as strong an economic engine as it was before the mortgage regulations took effect. The number of new listings was also down.

Despite the November drop, however, CREA says that 2016 will still be a very strong year for home sales, which it projects will rise by 6.2%, to 536,700 units. This would be a new annual record, 3.3% higher than the previous record set in 2007. The greatest increases in sales are seen in Prince Edward Island, British Columbia and Ontario, at 22.4%, 10% and 9% respectively. Next year will see a decline of 3.3% in national home sales compared to the projected activity for this year, CREA forecasts.

CREA also forecasts that the national average price of a home will fall by 2.8% in 2017, to $475,900.

The government’s newly tightened mortgage regulations have dampened a wide swath of housing markets, including places not targeted directly by the government’s latest regulatory measures. The extent to which they pushed first-time home buyers to the sidelines varies among housing markets.

Canada’s “Big 6” banks do not appear to have been affected yet by the latest mortgage regulations. All of them—CIBC, RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, and National Bank—reported growth in their residential mortgage portfolios in the fourth quarter, which ended October 31. Interestingly, several of the banks also reported an increase in the number of uninsured mortgages they approved. Mortgage borrowers with a down payment of more than 20% of the value of the home can opt for an uninsured mortgage. Banks generally require that uninsured borrowers have high credit scores and low loan-to-value ratios, i.e., less than 80%.

There has been speculation that the tightened mortgage rules would force some less-qualified borrowers to look for mortgages among the unregulated private lenders, sometimes referred to as the “shadow market.” These firms, according to Canadian Business, have “proliferated” in recent years. Private mortgage lenders are not regulated by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and charge higher rates than the national banks.

Customers in this market tend to be people looking for short-term mortgages, home renovation loans and debt consolidation, says Canadian Business. Many are self-employed, looking for a way into the real estate market but shut out by the regulated banks. One mortgage broker quoted in the Canadian Business article predicts that private lending is going to “explode” as a result of finance minister Morneau’s latest regulations, which affect home buyers in the under-$! million market.

The danger, say some, is that an increase in the number of Canadians with uninsured mortgages creates greater risk of personal bankruptcies and distressed home sales if interest rates rise. It is estimated that unregulated mortgage lenders, some of whom do in fact require mortgage insurance, account for 15% of new mortgage loans in Canada. So far, the federal government has not indicated that it intends to increase its scrutiny of this unregulated market, which also includes credit unions and hedge funds, and accounts for about 40% of the country’s nominal GDP.

One analyst and mortgage specialist, writing on Move Smartly, sees a silver lining to the more restrictive mortgage qualifications. David Larock wrote that while mortgage borrowing costs are higher, and fewer borrowers qualify, the new rules will reduce the rate of household debt accumulation and curtail speculative investment in certain real estate markets. Reducing indebtedness is, of course, what the finance minister said he wanted to accomplish with the new rules.

It should also be remembered, said Larock, that Canadian mortgage borrowers still have a range of options available to them. Those who shop around can still expect to find better rates and terms.

CREA : Lower November Home Sales Signal Impact of New Mortgage Rules by Josephine Nolan | Condo.ca

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