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Don’t Blame Mortgage Stress Test for The Biggest Drop in Home Sales


Under Market Updates

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March 29th, 2019

Realtors and a big Canadian bank aren’t seeing eye-to-eye on what’s behind the freeze that hit the national housing market market this February, when saw home sales fell lower than they’ve been since 2012.

The number of homes that changed hands in February was down 9.1 percent compared to January and 4.4 percent on an annual basis, once adjusted for seasonal factors, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The benchmark price of a home, meanwhile, was roughly unchanged from the previous month as well as a year ago.

In commentary accompanying the data, which was released this week, the association suggests the mortgage stress test hammered home sales in the 14th month since federal policymakers introduced the measure.

“Only time will tell whether successive changes to mortgage regulations went too far, since the impact of policy decisions becomes apparent only well after the fact,” writes Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist, in a statement.

Last January, stress testing — which was already mandatory for mortgage applicants without a minimum 20-percent downpayment in hand — was expanded to the uninsured sphere.

Previously, borrowers could avoid the stress testing, which requires them to qualify for a loan at a rate 200 basis points above whatever their lender offers, by putting forward 20 percent or more.

BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter isn’t so quick to attribute the slow February to this major policy change.

“While the weak results prompted some to rail against tighter mortgage rules and other constraints, we would instead highlight the weather,” writes Porter in a response to the CREA release.

Even a mild February is normally a slow month for home sales anyways, he notes, and last month was anything but.

It’s something he pointed out earlier this month as the Toronto and Vancouver real estate boards released their respective home sales data for February.

This time around, Porter also notes that the biggest annual drops were limited to Western Canada, where markets reliant on the energy sector remain depressed and Vancouver continues to correct.

If BC and Alberta are pulled from calculations, sales climbed 2.8 percent annually, Porter notes.

“We won’t delve into great detail on these figures; as one wise person put it, at this time of year, housing releases are more of a weather report than an economic report,” adds Porter.

Mortgage Stress Testing to Blame for The Biggest Drop in Canadian Home Sales in 7 Years? Experts Don’t Agree by Josh Sherman | Livabl

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