{"id":10128,"date":"2018-08-28T10:10:50","date_gmt":"2018-08-28T17:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=10128"},"modified":"2018-08-15T18:16:32","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T01:16:32","slug":"canadian-summer-housing-market-balance-stats-are-now-very-close-to-normal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/08\/canadian-summer-housing-market-balance-stats-are-now-very-close-to-normal\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Summer Housing Market Balance Stats are Now Very Close to Normal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If someone hasn\u2019t been following Canada\u2019s real estate market over the past year, the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) may give the impression that not much has happened.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After all, the average price of a home in Canada this July was $481,500, up just 1% from 12 months ago, according to the monthly CREA numbers released today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">National sales activity was also almost unchanged from last year, with July transactions down 1.3% year-over-year. Same goes for the number of new listings, which inched 2.6% lower.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter suggests these seemingly innocuous numbers don\u2019t paint a complete picture.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThat\u2019s an extraordinary mix of calm figures, considering the wild swings the market has witnessed in recent years. It also masks some serious regional shifts grinding away beneath the placid surface,\u201d writes Porter in response to the data.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Specifically, Greater Toronto is stabilizing after last spring\u2019s volatility. Sales increased a seasonally adjusted 7.7% from June and an unadjusted 17.6% annually. Meantime, the average selling price increased 4.8% year-over-year to $782,129.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cMarket balance is now very close to normal, albeit with the ongoing split between condos (solid) and single-family homes (soft),\u201d Porter continues.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CREA President Barb Sakkau suggests the more stringent mortgage underwriting guidelines introduced at the beginning of the year are not taking as much of a toll on the Toronto market as they were previously.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThis year\u2019s new stress-test on mortgage applicants continues to weigh on home sales but its effect may be starting to fade slightly in Toronto and nearby markets,\u201d Sakkau says in a statement.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BMO\u2019s chief economist notes another story lost behind the Canadawide stats : the pullback in the Prairies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In July, the average price of an Edmonton home was $376,429, a year-over-year decline of 3.5%. Calgary\u2019s average of $462,769 was roughly flat from July 2017, but prices declined 1.5% from June.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sales activity was down from July 2017 by 5.8% in Calgary and 1% in Edmonton, although there is reason to expect Alberta, Porter suggests.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cFirm oil prices should support confidence in the Alberta markets, but the fact is that both sales and prices are consistently down this year for both of the big cities there,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yet another regional divergence is playing out on the west coast. \u201cVancouver and other BC cities continue to post some of the biggest sales declines in the country, with the province hit by a number of measures to cool the local market,\u201d Porter explains.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On average, homes sold for $1,024,282 in Greater Vancouver, about the same as last year, while sales have plummeted 30% since last July. However, CREA\u2019s MLS Home Price Index shows prices on Vancouver Island were up 13.7% year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ottawa and Montreal remain \u201cbeacons of strength,\u201d says Porter, and local observers are predicting more growth in these markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For Ottawa, the average home price of $405,279 represents an increase of 3.6% over last year. Montreal\u2019s average price wasn\u2019t far behind climbing 5.4% year-over-year to $392,660 last month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ottawa activity in July was 6.1% above last year\u2019s level, as Montreal sales rose 6.7%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cFrom an overall macro standpoint, the main takeaway is that the housing market has ceased to be a major source of concern for policymakers (neither too hot, nor too cold) \u2014 at least for now,\u201d Porter says.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/2018\/08\/canadian-home-sales-masking.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">What This Summer&#8217;s Canadian Home Sales Stats Are Masking<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Livabl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If someone hasn\u2019t been following Canada\u2019s real estate market over the past year, the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) may give the impression that not much &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/08\/canadian-summer-housing-market-balance-stats-are-now-very-close-to-normal\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canadian Summer Housing Market Balance Stats are Now Very Close to Normal &#8226; 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