{"id":10180,"date":"2018-09-01T10:10:08","date_gmt":"2018-09-01T17:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=10180"},"modified":"2018-08-31T16:23:33","modified_gmt":"2018-08-31T23:23:33","slug":"bcrea-forecast-a-21-collapse-in-home-sales-for-2018-rebound-in-2019-by-8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/09\/bcrea-forecast-a-21-collapse-in-home-sales-for-2018-rebound-in-2019-by-8\/","title":{"rendered":"BCREA Forecast A 21% Collapse in Home Sales for 2018 &#038; Rebound in 2019 by 8%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) anticipates a sharp decline in home sales and relatively flat prices this year before the market begins recovering in 2019.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In its 2018 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update, BCREA predicts 82,000 homes will change hands in the province this year, down 21% from the 103,768 transactions recorded through MLS systems in BC last year. Residential sales in BC have averaged 84,800 annually over the past decade and are projected to rebound in 2019 by 8%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Greater Vancouver sales are expected to fall by 25.7% this year and then surge 13% the year after.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Northern BC, which includes Prince George \u2014 recently named BC\u2019s top major market for affordability \u2014 appears to be the only market poised for an uptick in activity this year. BCREA calls for activity to finish the year up 1.9%. In 2019, growth of 7.4% is forecast.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Realtors estimate the average price for a Vancouver home will increase 1.9% to $1,050,000 for 2018 and an additional 3.3% over 2019.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact, BCREA suggests all 11 member boards will see prices grow over the next two years. The association expects the average price for BC homes in 2018 to inch up 1.9% to $723,200 before climbing 5.3% to $761,600 the following year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe BC housing market is grappling with a sharp decline in affordability caused by tough B20 stress test rules for conventional mortgages,\u201d says Cameron Muir, BCREA\u2019s chief economist, in a news release.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Starting this year, stress testing was expanded to include uninsured mortgages from federally regulated financial institutions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That move was part of Guideline B-20, the series of rules drafted by federal lending watchdog the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To pass the stress test, the borrower has to qualify at the Bank of Canada\u2019s five-year benchmark rate or a rate 2 percentage points over their contractual rate, whichever of the two is higher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhile these rules have had a negative effect on housing demand across the country, the impact has been especially severe in BC\u2019s large urban centres because of already strained housing affordability,\u201d BCREA\u2019s Muir continues.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As sales have slowed, inventory levels have risen. The number of active listings surged 19.1% in July compared to the number of homes on the market at the end of the same month a year prior.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe\u2019ve seen inventory creep up since the beginning of the year, albeit we\u2019re coming from a decade low on the inventory side,\u201d Muir observes in a followup interview.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the increase in listings has weighed on price growth, BCREA once more notes factors that have somewhat cushioned prices from knockon effects of fewer sales and more robust supply levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cDemographics are highly favourable, especially the millennial generation who are now entering their household-forming years. In addition, low unemployment is leading to significant upward pressure on wages and, by extension, household wealth and confidence,\u201d writes BCREA in the news release.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/2018\/08\/bc-realtors-forecast-collapse-home-sales-2018.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BC Realtors Forecast A 21% Collapse in Home Sales for 2018 (But 2019 is Another Story)<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Livabl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) anticipates a sharp decline in home sales and relatively flat prices this year before the market begins recovering in 2019. In its 2018 &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/09\/bcrea-forecast-a-21-collapse-in-home-sales-for-2018-rebound-in-2019-by-8\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>BCREA Forecast A 21% Collapse in Home Sales for 2018 &amp; Rebound in 2019 by 8% &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/09\/bcrea-forecast-a-21-collapse-in-home-sales-for-2018-rebound-in-2019-by-8\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"BCREA Forecast A 21% Collapse in Home Sales for 2018 &amp; Rebound in 2019 by 8% &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) anticipates a sharp decline in home sales and relatively flat prices this year before the market begins recovering in 2019. In its 2018 &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/bcrea-forecast-a-21-collapse-in-home-sales-for-2018-rebound-in-2019-by-8\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/bcrea-forecast-a-21-collapse-in-home-sales-for-2018-rebound-in-2019-by-8\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"BCREA Forecast A 21% Collapse in Home Sales for 2018 &#038; 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