{"id":10966,"date":"2018-12-01T11:11:04","date_gmt":"2018-12-01T19:11:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=10966"},"modified":"2018-11-30T17:50:27","modified_gmt":"2018-12-01T01:50:27","slug":"vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/12\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\/","title":{"rendered":"Vancouver&#8217;s Housing Recovery will Probably be Rougher Than Toronto&#8217;s"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Vancouver housing market\u2019s recovery is likely going to take longer than Toronto\u2019s despite both being triggered by the same event, says an economic-research firm with a reputation for being somewhat of an outlier.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cAfter the stabilisation of the Toronto housing market this year, it\u2019s tempting to think that the deterioration in the Vancouver market will end in a soft landing,\u201d writes Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist for Capital Economics, in a Canada Economics Update published today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cBut Vancouver housing is more overvalued, and there are clear signs of excess supply coming to the market in the next couple of years,\u201d Brown adds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Capital Economics says 42,000 homes are under construction in Vancouver, whereas in much larger Toronto there are 71,000 units in the works. This means contractors in Vancouver are building 1.2 units for each newcomer to the city this year, versus 0.5 in Toronto.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But supply is only one of several factors Capital Economics looked at. Also under the microscope were the causes of the downturns, possible overvaluation of homes in each city, and demand \u2014 or lack thereof.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While Capital Economics credits stricter federal lending regulations, introduced at the beginning of the year, with spurring housing downturns in Toronto and Vancouver, Brown suggests the latter is more overvalued and has weaker demand-side factors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?attachment_id=10967\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-10967\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-10967\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/house-price-to-media-incom-288x188.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"371\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/house-price-to-media-incom-288x188.jpg 288w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/house-price-to-media-incom-768x501.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/house-price-to-media-incom.jpg 913w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In terms of overvaluation, one metric Capital Economics looked at was the ratio of home prices to median household incomes. In Vancouver, house prices were more than 12 times the median household income, above Toronto\u2019s nine times.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meantime, population growth, considered a fundamental contributor to housing demand, is slower in Vancouver than in Toronto. As of October, Vancouver\u2019s population was growing at a rate of 1.6 percent annually, compared to Toronto\u2019s more rapid rate of 2.5 percent.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe upshot of all this is that there are numerous reasons to think that Vancouver house prices are more vulnerable to a correction than those in Toronto,\u201d Brown notes.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/2018\/11\/economist-says-vancouvers-housing-recovery-rougher-than-torontos.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Why This Economist Says Vancouver&#8217;s Housing Recovery will Probably be Rougher Than Toronto&#8217;s<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Livabl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Vancouver housing market\u2019s recovery is likely going to take longer than Toronto\u2019s despite both being triggered by the same event, says an economic-research firm with a reputation for being &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/12\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Vancouver&#039;s Housing Recovery will Probably be Rougher Than Toronto&#039;s &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/12\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Vancouver&#039;s Housing Recovery will Probably be Rougher Than Toronto&#039;s &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The Vancouver housing market\u2019s recovery is likely going to take longer than Toronto\u2019s despite both being triggered by the same event, says an economic-research firm with a reputation for being &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/house-price-to-media-incom.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"Vancouver&#8217;s Housing Recovery will Probably be Rougher Than Toronto&#8217;s\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-12-01T19:11:04+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":350,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/11\\\/house-price-to-media-incom-288x188.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Market Updates\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2018\\\/12\\\/vancouvers-housing-recovery-will-probably-be-rougher-than-torontos\\\/\",\"name\":\"Vancouver's Housing Recovery will Probably be Rougher Than Toronto's &#8226; 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