{"id":11749,"date":"2019-02-25T15:15:28","date_gmt":"2019-02-25T23:15:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=11749"},"modified":"2019-02-25T08:51:31","modified_gmt":"2019-02-25T16:51:31","slug":"canadian-home-price-gains-will-grind-to-a-halt-in-the-coming-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/02\/canadian-home-price-gains-will-grind-to-a-halt-in-the-coming-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Home Price Gains will Grind to A Halt in The Coming Years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Researchers predict Canadian home price gains will grind to a halt in the coming years \u2014 and when values do get on the road to recovery, the pace of growth won\u2019t be anything like the last price runup.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moody\u2019s Analytics forecasts a \u201cslower, steadier\u201d Canadian housing market in its latest analysis, published this month. The economic research subsidiary of US-based financial services company Moody\u2019s anticipates home prices will rise 0.5 percent this year \u2014 amid a spurt of income growth \u2014 before inching down 0.5 percent in 2020.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the three years that follow, prices will pick up, but nowhere near the 13.4-percent annual increase observed in the fourth quarter of 2016 or the 7.7 percent gain in the same time in 2017.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The forecast, which uses pricing data from consultancy RPS, pegs sluggish price gains of 1.6 percent for 2021 and increases of 2.7 and 2.6 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Andres Carbacho-Burgos, director at Moody\u2019s Analytics, says in one respect this is \u201cgood news\u201d \u2014 but it\u2019s not all positive.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhile the much slower price growth is good news for affordability, the likely downward pull on residential construction and on real estate agent and mortgage lender jobs across the country is starting to be felt,\u201d writes Carbacho-Burgos in the report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With these knock-on effects towards the economy already materializing, Canada\u2019s central bank may have a tougher time stopping a recession from taking root, continues Carbacho-Burgos, who is unequivocal as to the cause of the downturn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe current housing market slowdown is entirely policy-caused,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A slew of provincial and federal policy moves \u2014 including BC and Ontario policy interventions such as foreign-homebuyer taxes as well as tighter mortgage rules and higher interest rates nationally \u2014 have taken the wind out of the market\u2019s sales.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The brief boost income growth is expected to give the housing market this year will give way to these and other effects soon, Carbacho-Burgos suggests.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cFrom 2020 to 2022, income growth will slow as tighter credit starts to pull on spending,\u201d he writes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cTighter credit will also halt the slight upward trend in consumer price inflation, while also pulling down on the growth of new-house and land prices due to reduced residential construction. All told, after 2019 there will be somewhat less underlying momentum for house price appreciation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/2019\/02\/canadian-home-prices-slower-steadier.html\">Get Ready for Canadian Home Prices to Grind to A Halt, Then Rise &#8220;Slower &amp; Steadier&#8221;<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Livabl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Researchers predict Canadian home price gains will grind to a halt in the coming years \u2014 and when values do get on the road to recovery, the pace of growth &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/02\/canadian-home-price-gains-will-grind-to-a-halt-in-the-coming-years\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canadian Home Price Gains will Grind to A Halt in The Coming Years &#8226; 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