{"id":12072,"date":"2019-03-25T10:10:02","date_gmt":"2019-03-25T17:10:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=12072"},"modified":"2019-03-21T10:30:15","modified_gmt":"2019-03-21T17:30:15","slug":"mortgage-stress-test-impact-home-sales-prices-continues-across-nation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/03\/mortgage-stress-test-impact-home-sales-prices-continues-across-nation\/","title":{"rendered":"Mortgage Stress Test Impact Home Sales &#038; Prices Continues Across Nation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The prolonged effects of tougher mortgage policies continued to make their mark on national home sales and prices in February, with the Canadian Real Estate Association\u2019s latest report revealing the largest monthly decline in activity since the stress test was introduced last January.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sales fell \u201csharply\u201d by 9.1% from January, and are down 4.4% from the same month in 2018. That\u2019s had a downward pull on prices, with the national average falling 5.2% year over year to $468,350, and coming in at $371,000 without Toronto and Vancouver factored in. The MLS Home Price Index, which measures the value of homes trading hands, also fell for the first time in a decade, though by a minimal amount at 0.1%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It was the lowest level in 10 years for February sales, as CREA reports that they\u2019re down in three quarters of all markets, including Canada\u2019s largest cities. The decline is most acute in the British Columbia, Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador markets, where activity is actually 20% below the 10-year average, compared to 12% throughout the rest of the nation.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?attachment_id=12073\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-12073\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-12073\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/canada-home-prices-feb-2019-zoocasa-288x288.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"599\" height=\"599\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/canada-home-prices-feb-2019-zoocasa-288x288.png 288w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/canada-home-prices-feb-2019-zoocasa-155x155.png 155w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/canada-home-prices-feb-2019-zoocasa-420x420.png 420w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/canada-home-prices-feb-2019-zoocasa-240x240.png 240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, 599px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<strong>Stress Test Impact Continues to Be Felt Across Nation<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CREA continues to point to the mortgage stress test as a major contributor to the market slowdown, and has hit back at recent commentary from the lending industry defending the measure as being appropriate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Said CREA President Barn Sukkau in the association\u2019s release, \u201cFor aspiring home buyers being kept on the sidelines by the mortgage stress test, it\u2019s a bitter pill to swallow when policy makers say the policy is working as intended. Fewer qualified buyers means sellers are affected too.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gregory Klump, CREA\u2019s Chief Economist, said that slower housing market activity is expected to have an overall downward pull of the economy, and urged policy makers to reconsider the extent of the measures taken.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cFebruary home sales declined across a broad swath of large and smaller Canadian cities,\u201d he said. \u201cThe housing sector is on track to further reduce waning Canadian economic growth. Only time will tell whether successive changes to mortgage regulations went too far, since the impact of policy decisions becomes apparent only well after the fact. Hopefully policy makers are thinking about how to find tune regulations to better keep housing affordability within reach while keeping lending risks in check.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Slowdown in Sales Offsets New Supply<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The number of newly-listed homes in February also fell 3.2%, with the greatest contractions in supply seen in the Greater Toronto Area, Hamilton-Burlington, as well as the western markets such as Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, that wasn\u2019t enough to offset slower sales activity, which softened overall buyer conditions. The national sales-to-new-listings ratio, which measures the level of competition in the market, fell to 54.1% from 57.6% in January. While that\u2019s still within balanced territory, it\u2019s a step back from levels that were approaching a sellers\u2019 market just one month ago. CREA considers a ratio between 40 \u2013 60% to be balanced, with below and above that threshold to be buyers\u2019 and sellers\u2019 markets, respectively.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to this criteria, 70% of all markets remained balanced, while the level of inventory \u2013 the number of months it would take to fully sell all homes available on the market \u2013 remained at a three-and-a-half-year high at 5.7 months. However, this was unevenly distributed across the country, with inventory much higher than is typical in the Prairie provinces and Newfoundland and Labrador, and below usual levels in Ontario and the Maritimes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Price Growth By Home Type<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Condos continue to lead the market in terms of price growth, with the average unit up 2.4%. Townhouses also experienced a 1% increase, while one- and two-storey house prices fell -1.7% and -1%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Home Prices by Region<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">British Columbia :The province has been ensnared in a sustained slowdown since the start of 2019, with local real estate associations reporting a 30% drop in sales in February. That\u2019s had a negative impact on prices, which fell -6.1% in Greater Vancouver, and -2.8% in the Fraser Valley. However, prices rose 3% in Victoria, and were up 7.7% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ontario : Despite slower sales, the Greater Golden Horseshoe markets continue to experience price growth. Values were up 2.3% in the GTA, 6.8% in Guelph real estate, 6.5% in Niagara, 5% in Hamilton-Burlington, and 0.2% in Oakville-Milton. The Barrie and District markets were the only ones to see prices decline by -4.3%. The MLS Ottawa market, however, continues to boom with prices up 7.4%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Prairies : CREA points out that supply is \u201chistorically elevated relative to sales\u201d across the Prairie provinces, which continues to put downward pressure on prices. They fell by -4.4% in Calgary, -4.5% in Edmonton, -5.1% in Regina, and -3% in Saskatoon. \u201cThe home pricing environment will likely remain weak in these cities until demand and supply come back into better balance,\u201d states CREA\u2019s release.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Eastern Canada : Montreal continues to be one of the strongest markets in the nation, experiencing strong price growth of 6.2%. Greater Moncton also saw an increase of 1.6%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CREA Revises Forecast for 2019 \u2013 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The national association has tweaked its forecast for sales and prices for this year and next, prompted by the sustained impact of mortgage policies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhile the outlook for economic growth has dimmed since CREA\u2019s previous forecast was released last December, interest rates together with labour market and demographic fundamentals remain supportive for housing demand. However, policy headwinds continue to limit access to mortgage financing and dampen market sentiment,\u201d states the release.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is forecasted that national sales in 2019 will be the weakest in a decade and the lowest per capita in 20 years, down -1.6% to a total of 450,400 units. Most of the pain will be in BC as well as in Alberta, although gains in Quebec and Ontario will partly offset slower activity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The average price is expected to stabilize at $487,000 next year, down -0.2%, though prices are expected to fall further in Alberta, BC, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. However, they\u2019ll continue to rise in Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and PEI, as well as in the GGH.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">National sales will tick higher in 2020 by 2% to a total of 459,400 units, with average price trends to be moderate versions of what\u2019s experienced in 2019.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/crea-february-2019-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CREA Report : National Home Sales and Prices Fall in February<\/a> by Penelope Graham | zoocasa<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The prolonged effects of tougher mortgage policies continued to make their mark on national home sales and prices in February, with the Canadian Real Estate Association\u2019s latest report revealing the &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/03\/mortgage-stress-test-impact-home-sales-prices-continues-across-nation\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mortgage Stress Test Impact Home Sales &amp; 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