{"id":13698,"date":"2019-09-24T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2019-09-24T17:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=13698"},"modified":"2019-09-18T09:01:28","modified_gmt":"2019-09-18T16:01:28","slug":"the-canadian-housing-market-momentum-should-continue-into-the-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/09\/the-canadian-housing-market-momentum-should-continue-into-the-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"The Canadian Housing Market Momentum Should Continue into The Fall"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A major real estate industry group has updated its forecast for the Canadian housing market this year and next.<\/p>\n<p>The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which represents realtors, expects Canadian home sales will number 482,000 in 2019.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s an increase of 19,000 transactions versus what the association had predicted in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<p>If CREA\u2019s latest quarterly forecast comes to pass, it would mean national home sales activity had settled to a level that is consistent with the 10-year average.<\/p>\n<p>It would also represent an increase of 5 percent over 2018\u2019s tally, which was a five-year low.<\/p>\n<p>CREA weighed a number of factors when adjusting its forecast.<\/p>\n<p>The association notes that is is now widely anticipated that the Bank of Canada will maintain the overnight rate, which influences mortgage rates, at its current level of 1.75 percent.<\/p>\n<p>And the central bank\u2019s benchmark rate, an average of posted mortgage rates offered by Big Six banks, declined for the first time since 2016.<\/p>\n<p>This bodes well for borrowers \u2014 and as a result, homebuying activity \u2014 as the benchmark rate is used during the mortgage-qualification process.<\/p>\n<p>As per the stress test federal policymakers brought in last year, uninsured mortgage applicants must qualify for their loans at the benchmark rate or a rate that is 200 basis points above what their lender is offering, whichever of the two is higher.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPopulation and employment growth have both remained supportive and the unemployment rate remains low,\u201d CREA says in its forecast, highlighting other positives.<\/p>\n<p>CREA predicts Canadian homes will sell for an average of $491,000 this year, up 0.5 percent from 2018 \u2014 when prices dropped 3.9 percent annually. The following year, CREA says prices should increase 2.1 percent to $501,400.<\/p>\n<p>In a response to CREA home sales data released the same day as the upwardly revised forecast, BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic also suggested the housing market would remain solid in the near-term.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYet again, the housing bears are going to have to take their medicine,\u201d Kavcic writes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA solid job market and population flows persist across much of the country, amplified by a roughly 100 bps (basis-points) drop in five-year fixed mortgage rates since late-2018. This momentum should continue into the fall,\u201d the BMO economist adds.<\/p>\n<p>CREA\u2019s home sales forecast for 2020 calls for 518,100 homes to change hands, representing an increase of 7.5 over this year\u2019s forecasted total.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSales are forecast to continue to improve through 2020, albeit slowly,\u201d the CREA forecast reads.<\/p>\n<p>Check out the association\u2019s provincial forecasts below :<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?attachment_id=13699\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-13699\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-13699\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BCREA-266x288.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BCREA-266x288.png 266w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BCREA.png 723w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/2019\/09\/major-forecast-canadian-housing-market.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">This Major Forecast for The Canadian Housing Market Just Got a Lot Better<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Livabl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A major real estate industry group has updated its forecast for the Canadian housing market this year and next. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), which represents realtors, expects Canadian &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/09\/the-canadian-housing-market-momentum-should-continue-into-the-fall\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Canadian Housing Market Momentum Should Continue into The Fall &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/09\/the-canadian-housing-market-momentum-should-continue-into-the-fall\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The Canadian Housing Market Momentum Should Continue into The Fall &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"A major real estate industry group has updated its forecast for the Canadian housing market this year and next. 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