{"id":13715,"date":"2019-09-25T10:10:11","date_gmt":"2019-09-25T17:10:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=13715"},"modified":"2019-09-19T09:40:57","modified_gmt":"2019-09-19T16:40:57","slug":"crea-updates-forecast-as-home-sales-prices-improve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/09\/crea-updates-forecast-as-home-sales-prices-improve\/","title":{"rendered":"CREA Updates Forecast as Home Sales &#038; Prices Improve"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The national August housing numbers are in, and they\u2019re looking rosy; the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association points to sustained improvement across the country with sales up for a sixth consecutive month, prompting the board to improve its forecast for the remainder of this year and next, including a turnaround for the country\u2019s weakest markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sales are up 5% year over year with a total of 44,437 transactions, marking a 17% improvement from the market\u2019s low in February of this year. However, activity is still about 10% short of its 2016 \u2013 early 2017 peak. The average home price rose 3.9% from 2018 to $493,000, while the MLS Home Price Index \u2013 a measure of the overall value of homes sold \u2013 edged up 0.9%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Steady Growth to Continue Into Next Year<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CREA anticipates these improvements will continue with steady sales growth throughout the remainder of this year and 2020; sales are to increase 5% and 7.5% over the next two years, respectively. That includes robust improvement in the beleaguered British Columbia market, where sales are to rise by a whopping 14.3% in 2020, as well as a 5% uptick in Alberta. The national average sale price is forecast to stabilize at 0.5% this year (compared to a previously predicted -0.6% decline), before increasing 2.1% to an average of $501,400 in 2020.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Lower Mortgage Rates Improve Stress Test Chances<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CREA attributes this positive growth mainly to today\u2019s uber-low interest rate environment, which has reduced the criteria for the federal stress test considerably; as fixed mortgage rates have been slashed by consumer lenders, that has in turn lowered the five-year benchmark rate used by the Bank of Canada to qualify prospective home buyers for mortgages. Under current rules, borrowers of new mortgages must prove they could qualify for a mortgage at this rate, or their lender rate plus 2 per cent, whichever is higher.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe recent marginal decline in the benchmark five-year interest rate used to assess home buyers\u2019 mortgage eligibility, together with lower home prices in some markets, means that some previously sidelined home buyers have returned,\u201d stated Gregory Klump, CREA\u2019s chief economist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cEven so, the mortgage stress test will continue to limit home buyers\u2019 access to mortgage financing, with the degree to which it further weighs on home sales activity continuing to vary by region.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Supply Dipping Below Long-Term Average<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">August sales gains were actually strongest in Winnipeg \u2013 which experienced a record-setting month \u2013 and also saw promising improvement in the Fraser Valley, while Moncton saw the greatest decline in activity. The markets with year-over-year sales increases include BC\u2019s Lower Mainland, Winnipeg, the Greater Toronto Area, Ottawa, Montreal, and Calgary real estate markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The supply of new listings increased 1.1%, roughly in line with sales, keeping the national sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) even keel at 60.1%, up from 60% in July. That\u2019s just on the edge of a sellers\u2019 market, and up considerably from the long-term average of 53.6%. CREA defines an SNLR (which is calculated by dividing the number of sales by the number of new listings during the month) of 40 \u2013 60% as a balanced market. A percentage above or below that threshold indicates a sellers\u2019 or buyers\u2019 market, respectively. According to this criteria, three quarters of all markets could be considered balanced in August.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the months of inventory \u2013 a measure of how long it would take to liquidate all available homes for sale on the market \u2013 currently sits at 4.6 months, the lowest level since December 2017, and below the long-term average of 5.3 months. As has been the case, inventory levels are split across the country, remaining much higher than typical in the Prairie provinces as well as in Newfoundland and Labrador, and much higher than usual in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. British Columbia is considered \u201cwell centred\u201d, setting the stage for price stabilization.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>BC and Prairies Starting to Improve<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact, according to CREA, Vancouver real estate and the Prairies are already experiencing a slowdown from the price declines that have plagued these markets over the medium term, though still far from the rebounding values occurring in the Greater Golden Horseshoe markets and much of eastern Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Check out the infographic below to see how prices changed in Canada\u2019s major markets in August.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?attachment_id=13716\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-13716\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-13716\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/zoocasa-288x283.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/zoocasa-288x283.png 288w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/zoocasa-768x754.png 768w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/zoocasa-1088x1069.png 1088w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/zoocasa.png 1300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 665px) 100vw, 665px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoocasa.com\/blog\/crea-august-2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CREA Updates Forecast as August Home Sales and Prices Improve<\/a> by Penelope Graham | zoocasa<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The national August housing numbers are in, and they\u2019re looking rosy; the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association points to sustained improvement across the country with sales up &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/09\/crea-updates-forecast-as-home-sales-prices-improve\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CREA Updates Forecast as Home Sales &amp; Prices Improve &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2019\/09\/crea-updates-forecast-as-home-sales-prices-improve\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"CREA Updates Forecast as Home Sales &amp; Prices Improve &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The national August housing numbers are in, and they\u2019re looking rosy; the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association points to sustained improvement across the country with sales up &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/zoocasa.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/crea-updates-forecast-as-home-sales-prices-improve\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/crea-updates-forecast-as-home-sales-prices-improve\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"CREA Updates Forecast as Home Sales &#038; 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