{"id":1404,"date":"2016-03-31T08:55:07","date_gmt":"2016-03-31T15:55:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=1404"},"modified":"2016-03-30T17:19:07","modified_gmt":"2016-03-31T00:19:07","slug":"the-one-factor-supporting-soaring-toronto-vancouver-home-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/03\/the-one-factor-supporting-soaring-toronto-vancouver-home-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"The One Factor Supporting Soaring Toronto &#038; Vancouver Home Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The forecast-defying performances of real estate in Canada\u2019s hottest markets have left some analysts flagging record household indebtedness, the biggest chunk of which comes from mortgages, after all.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Stefane Marion, National Bank of Canada\u2019s chief economist, is not among them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a research note sent out today, Marion argues rapid price increases in Toronto and Vancouver are supported by a single factor: household formation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe underlying force for housing demand is household formation. If your population aged 20-44 is growing, you have it. If it\u2019s not, home price inflation is not sustainable,\u201d Marion writes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Canada, it turns out, that relatively youthful demographic is expected to grow 2.8% in the next five years, running contrary to the 3.4% decline in the forecast across developed countries.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/simple-chart-explains.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1405\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1405\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/simple-chart-explains-242x300.png\" alt=\"simple chart explains\" width=\"470\" height=\"583\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/simple-chart-explains-242x300.png 242w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/simple-chart-explains.png 597w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 470px) 100vw, 470px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cDespite a collapse in oil prices in 2015, Home prices in (Toronto and Vancouver) baffled expectations with another year of strong increases. For some pundits, this is a sure sign of speculation,\u201d writes Marion.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cStrangely enough, the alarmists fail to mention that the working age population [in Toronto and Vancouver] is growing about 70% faster than the national average\u2026 on the back of strong inflows of highly educated immigrants,\u201d he adds, addressing bearish observers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These immigrants are \u201cmore easily\u201d able to work their way into job markets, suggests Marion, who highlights favourable employment prospects in Toronto and Vancouver. \u201cEmployment surged 5.5% in Toronto and 4.4% in Vancouver in 2015,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, home prices in Greater Vancouver skyrocketed 18.9% and 10 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association\u2019s index.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Not sold? For good measure, the economist throws in a second graph comparing price-to-income ratios for 90-square-metre downtown apartments in major cosmopolitan centres across the globe.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIt is interesting to note that current price-to-income ratios for 90-square-metre downtown apartments in Canada\u2019s three biggest cities is certainly not out of line with ratios observed elsewhere around the world,\u201d writes Marion, wrapping up the note.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If you\u2019re feeling the pinch in Toronto, just check out Hong Kong.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/price-to-income-chart.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1406\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1406\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/price-to-income-chart-253x300.png\" alt=\"price-to-income-chart\" width=\"473\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/price-to-income-chart-253x300.png 253w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/price-to-income-chart.png 573w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 473px) 100vw, 473px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2016\/03\/one-factor-soaring-toronto-vancouver-home-prices.html\" target=\"_blank\">This Simple Chart Explains The One Factor Supporting Soaring Toronto &amp; Vancouver Home Prices<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The forecast-defying performances of real estate in Canada\u2019s hottest markets have left some analysts flagging record household indebtedness, the biggest chunk of which comes from mortgages, after all. Stefane Marion, &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/03\/the-one-factor-supporting-soaring-toronto-vancouver-home-prices\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The One Factor Supporting Soaring Toronto &amp; Vancouver Home Prices &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/03\/the-one-factor-supporting-soaring-toronto-vancouver-home-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The One Factor Supporting Soaring Toronto &amp; Vancouver Home Prices &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The forecast-defying performances of real estate in Canada\u2019s hottest markets have left some analysts flagging record household indebtedness, the biggest chunk of which comes from mortgages, after all. 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