Last year, real estate pundits predicted that sales in 2019 would rebound after a soft 2018. And they were partially right, although it ended up happening too late in the year for the full-year total to be described as a recovery.<\/p>\n
So what are the various real estate industry organizations and brokerages predicting for BC\u2019s residential sales and prices in the coming year?<\/p>\n
We compiled this summary of some of the key 2020 forecasts, and took our best stab at a general consensus.<\/p>\n
Sales Activity<\/strong><\/p>\n Prone to bullishness about the B.C. housing market by nature, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicts that MLS residential sales across the province will increase 10.9% to 85,500 units in 2020, which would take the annual total to just below the 10-year annual average of 85,800 units. However, it\u2019s worth noting that BCREA\u2019s forecast a year ago that sales would rise 5.2% in 2019 did not come to pass.<\/p>\n What\u2019s also worth bearing in mind is that BCREA\u2019s predicted sales increase is for all of BC and flattens out the widely varying predictions across different regions. Most of the recovery in activity is forecast to be driven by rising sales in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, where the markets were hit hardest by the recent slowdown. Greater Vancouver residential transactions are predicted to increase by 18.2% in 2020, compared with 2019, and Fraser Valley sales are forecast to go up 12.4% next year. In comparison, Victoria\u2019s resale transactions are expected to rise a more modest 4% in 2020.<\/p>\n Central 1 Credit Union, which tends to forecast with more measured caution, is surprisingly even more optimistic about BC home sales in 2020. It predicts that the higher demand seen in the market this summer and fall will mean home sales across the province will rise 12.9% in 2020 \u2014 a generous upward revision from its previous forecast of 8.8%.<\/p>\n Brokerage Royal LePage agrees that this demand, particularly in the Greater Vancouver market, will be sustained in 2020. \u201cSales have picked up significantly this fall and there is momentum in our market. Buyers who took a \u2018wait and see\u2019 approach over the past 18 months are returning to the market looking to buy, confident that price drops have levelled off and may start to escalate,\u201d said Randy Ryalls, managing broker of Royal LePage Sterling Realty, in the brokerage\u2019s 2020 forecast.<\/p>\n Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) makes the vote for considerably higher Greater Vancouver sales in 2020 unanimous. The federal housing agency, which breaks down its forecast by census metropolitan area rather than province, predicts that Vancouver CMA will likely recover the home sales lost in 2019 and return, in 2020, to approximately the \u201cnormalized\u201d levels of activity seen in 2018. Victoria CMA will see sales level off in 2020 and 2021, said CMHC.<\/p>\n General consensus : The forecast is pretty much unwavering among the various pundits. BC\u2019s housing market activity will strengthen on the whole, but most of the recovery will be in the Lower Mainland, where the market had previously been hardest hit.<\/p>\n Home Price Changes<\/strong><\/p>\n In another show of bullishness, Central 1 Credit Union is confident that BC\u2019s median sale price across the whole year will break new records in 2020, and again in 2021. After the downward blip seen in 2019, in which the median full-year price is expected to have fallen 2.4% to $522,000, the credit union is forecasting a rise of 3.8% to a new all-time provincial record of $542,000 in 2020.<\/p>\n BCREA predicted a similar whole-province average price rise, at 3.6% in 2020. However, it seems the larger increase in predicted sales in the Lower Mainland doesn\u2019t translate to larger increases in predicted home prices. According to BCREA, Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are both expected to see an average MLS sale price rise of just one per cent in 2020. The association\u2019s highest forecast for an average sale price increase is in the BC Northern region, where prices are expected to jump 8.1% in 2020.<\/p>\n RoyalLePage mirrored this forecast for Greater Vancouver. It said in its most recent outlook: \u201cIn Greater Vancouver, house price appreciation is expected to stabilize in 2020 after declining in 2019. The aggregate price of a home in the region is forecast to rise 1.5% to $1,125,200. Overall, British Columbia\u2019s outlook is positive.\u201d<\/p>\n RoyalLePage\u2019s Ryalls added, \u201cThe concern for potential buyers may be that prices will escalate quickly but they should also be concerned that they won\u2019t get the same selection of listings or time to look around. It varies between neighbourhoods, but areas such as East Vancouver are a seller\u2019s market.\u201d<\/p>\n Re\/Max didn\u2019t offer a whole-province prediction, but its area-focused forecast was something of an outlier, pegging Vancouver East and Vancouver West as seeing considerably higher price growth next year, at 8% and 4% respectively. It said that Kelowna would see the province\u2019s least amount of price growth, with prices flat to 2019, while Victoria would see a 3% price uptick.<\/p>\n CMHC thinks that any Vancouver-area price growth will remain muted, but its forecast range predicts that a slight rise is more likely than a slight decline. Victoria\u2019s home prices in 2020 are likely to remain flat with 2019 before rising slightly in 2021, according to the federal housing agency.<\/p>\n General consensus : This one is slightly more varied than the sales forecast, but it averages out to a sense of cautious optimism. Which is to say that BC\u2019s average home prices will likely rise a few percent next year, but Greater Vancouver and Victoria\u2019s price trends will lag somewhat, with modest-to-zero increases and probably no loss of value.<\/p>\n