{"id":15743,"date":"2020-06-02T11:11:00","date_gmt":"2020-06-02T18:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=15743"},"modified":"2020-05-28T11:26:30","modified_gmt":"2020-05-28T18:26:30","slug":"bc-real-estate-industry-begs-to-differ-cmhcs-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2020\/06\/bc-real-estate-industry-begs-to-differ-cmhcs-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"BC Real Estate Industry Begs to Differ CMHC&#8217;s Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) released a housing forecast May 27 that envisioned a nightmare collapse of the housing market with national sales dropping up to 29%, starts plunging by 50%-70% and average house prices dropping as much as 18% with no real recovery until 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cCanada will see a historic recession in 2020 with significant falls in indicators of the housing market,\u201d stated the Housing Market Outlook special edition spring 2020.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bob Dugan, CEO of CMHC, was quick to add the disclaimer that \u201cthis housing outlook is subject to unprecedented uncertainty due to the pandemic\u201d during a conference call with media.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The report states that Western Canada will be hit particularly hard due to the Prairie provinces\u2019 reliance on the resource industry and British Columbia\u2019s exposure to the tourism and hospitality sectors, which have been hammered by the global COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But CMHC\u2019s uncertainty about its forecast is well placed, according to residential industry experts, who say there are early, positive signals that the current downturn could be brief, if brutal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe are already seeing inquiries from home buyers up 5% from pre-COVID levels,\u201d said Elton Ash, Western Canada executive vice-president for Re\/Max. Ash noted that the high level of housing sales at the start of this year is an indication of coiled demand that will lead to a quicker recovery than most expect. Ash is particularly bullish on Metro Vancouver, noting benchmark home prices increased in April and May, compared with a year earlier, even as sales crashed in the face of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cTo see the price drop that CMHC is suggesting is unrealistic,\u201d Ash said. He sees downward price adjustments in BC of perhaps 5% to 10%, depending on the region.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cYes, there has been some economic pain, but not to the extent that CMHC is suggesting,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ash added that realtors and consumers have widely embraced the latest technology for virtual home tours, listings and communication, which has allowed many home transactions to proceed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist of the BC Real Estate Association, is also confident that the \u201cresiliency\u201d of home buyers will lead to recovery later this year, following the plunge in housing sales with the arrival of COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe should be happy sales only fell by 50% when you consider this is a global pandemic,\u201d he said. Ogmundson said home prices in BC will remain fairly stable because the number of homes for sale has declined nearly 25% because of social distancing. In April, he added, the benchmark provincial home price was 7.8% higher than in April of 2019.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BCREA expects a sales recovery to begin in the second quarter, fed by \u201csuper low mortgage rates and pent-up demand,\u201d Ogmundson said,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ogmundson also noted that the majority of lost jobs are in the lower-end of income levels. \u201cThis will have more of an impact on the rental housing market rather than those buying homes,\u201d he suggested.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/biv.com\/article\/2020\/05\/realtors-not-buying-cmhcs-nightmare-scenario\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Realtors Not Buying CMHC&#8217;s &#8220;Nightmare&#8221; Scenario<\/a> by Frank O&#8217;Brien | BIV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) released a housing forecast May 27 that envisioned a nightmare collapse of the housing market with national sales dropping up to 29%, starts plunging &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2020\/06\/bc-real-estate-industry-begs-to-differ-cmhcs-forecast\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>BC Real Estate Industry Begs to Differ CMHC&#039;s Forecast &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2020\/06\/bc-real-estate-industry-begs-to-differ-cmhcs-forecast\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"BC Real Estate Industry Begs to Differ CMHC&#039;s Forecast &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. 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