{"id":16963,"date":"2020-12-04T11:11:00","date_gmt":"2020-12-04T19:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=16963"},"modified":"2020-12-02T09:59:13","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T17:59:13","slug":"new-lockdowns-would-hurt-sales-but-not-home-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2020\/12\/new-lockdowns-would-hurt-sales-but-not-home-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"New Lockdowns Would Hurt Sales, but Not Home Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The biggest risk to Canada\u2019s housing market in the near-term is new lockdowns in big cities that have seen COVID-19 infections surge in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to an economist with Capital Economics, restrictions that may be rolled out in the coming days would put a dent in the robust sales activity recorded since summer, but would leave home prices mostly unaffected.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe key near-term risk to the housing market is the prospect of \u201ccircuit-breaker\u201d lockdowns in the major cities,\u201d wrote Stephen Brown in a research note published today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cNew restrictions for Toronto [are] due to be announced later on Friday and, while the rumours so far suggest these will remain targeted to certain high-risk activities, we would not be surprised if this is the last step before all non-essential businesses are closed,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So far, Canada\u2019s housing market has \u201cshrugged off\u201d worsening COVID-19 outbreaks. Brown said that a small monthly decline in home sales recorded in October could be tied back to lower inventory of homes for sale rather than pandemic fears. At the national level, the supply of unsold homes dropped to a record low of two and a half months, meaning it would take two and a half months for all homes currently listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With new restrictions aligning with the late year period and holiday season, when home sales typically slow down anyway, Brown writes that these measures \u201cwouldn\u2019t do much\u201d to home prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The economist acknowledged that downtown condos are a weak spot for the market, but from a national perspective, they are too small to significantly shift home prices at the country-wide level.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Far more important to Brown is the potential impact of an effective vaccine on the housing market in 2021. Pfizer and Moderna have both reported the efficacy of their vaccines is at or near 95 percent. With Canada having already ordered substantial amounts of both, Brown asks if the distribution of those vaccines could reverse the rising home price trends we\u2019ve seen this year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It may seem like an unusual question considering the promise of a return to normalcy that the widespread distribution of these vaccines hold. But Brown writes that the pandemic was \u201can unexpected boon for the housing market\u201d and COVID-19-driven policy moves by Canada\u2019s central bank have caused mortgage rates to drop to rock bottom levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If mortgage rates were to begin to rise again on the back of an improving economic picture as the pandemic recedes, this could dissuade some potential buyers from entering the market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/2020\/11\/new-lockdowns-hurt-sales-not-home-prices.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Capital Economics : New Lockdowns Would Hurt Sales, but Not Home Prices<\/a> by Sean MacKay | Livabl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The biggest risk to Canada\u2019s housing market in the near-term is new lockdowns in big cities that have seen COVID-19 infections surge in recent weeks. According to an economist with &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2020\/12\/new-lockdowns-would-hurt-sales-but-not-home-prices\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Lockdowns Would Hurt Sales, but Not Home Prices &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2020\/12\/new-lockdowns-would-hurt-sales-but-not-home-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"New Lockdowns Would Hurt Sales, but Not Home Prices &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The biggest risk to Canada\u2019s housing market in the near-term is new lockdowns in big cities that have seen COVID-19 infections surge in recent weeks. 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