{"id":19109,"date":"2021-12-27T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-27T18:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=19109"},"modified":"2021-12-15T10:36:44","modified_gmt":"2021-12-15T18:36:44","slug":"crea-2022-home-sales-to-drop-but-prices-will-continue-to-climb-through-spring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2021\/12\/crea-2022-home-sales-to-drop-but-prices-will-continue-to-climb-through-spring\/","title":{"rendered":"CREA 2022 Home Sales to Drop, But Prices will Continue to Climb Through Spring"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Heading into the end of 2021, the Canadian housing market reported an uptick in sales as available inventory remained extremely low.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Today, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released its national statistics for November, which highlight the ongoing supply and demand issues the country is experiencing. As monthly sales and the average national sale price climbed last month, the number of newly listed properties nudged upwards slightly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cNovember provided another month of evidence that the housing supply\/demand issues facing the country have not gone away,\u201d said Cliff Stevenson, chair of CREA, in the monthly report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cEven at what is traditionally the slow time of year for housing, conditions and price trends are at the same record levels we saw this spring. Things may calm down a bit through the balance of December and January, but next year\u2019s spring market will no doubt be an interesting one,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Here\u2019s what we know from the latest from CREA, including its forecast for 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Home sales rise less than 1% from October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Between October and November, home sales recorded over the MLS system increased by 0.6%. Declines in activity within the Greater Toronto Area and Montreal were offset by gains seen in smaller communities like Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon and the British Columbia interior.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The actual \u2014 not seasonally adjusted \u2014 number of transactions logged in November 2021 was \u201cvery strong historically,\u201d falling by 0.7% annually and missing the November 2020 record by just a few hundred transactions, CREA said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Year-to-date, approximately 630,634 residential properties have been transacted through MLS between January and November, which now far exceeds the previous all-time record of 552,423 sales for all of 2020. Last month, the record was officially shattered with 581,275 homes having been bought and sold up until October.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>New housing supply creeps up a little over 3%<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The quantity of newly-listed homes hitting the market rose 3.3% from October to November. About half of local markets drove supply gains, including the GTA, Montreal, several markets within the Greater Golden Horseshoe and the Lower Mainland. About two-thirds of local markets were seller\u2019s markets, while the other third was in balanced territory.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The sales-to-new listings ratio eased 77%, down slightly from October when it was recorded at 79.1%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By the end of November, there was just 1.8 months of inventory available, an amount that tied with March 2021 as the lowest level ever recorded.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cHousing cycles can be very long, so market trends do not care that we\u2019ve put new 2022 calendars up on our refrigerator doors,\u201d said Shaun Cathcart, CREA\u2019s senior economist, in the report. \u201cThe fact is that the supply issues we faced going into 2020, which became much worse heading into 2021, are even tighter as we move into 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>National average home price rises to over $720,000<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In November, the Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) rose 2.7% on a monthly basis. The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS HPI increased by a record 25.3% year-to-year for November.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CREA noted that the MLS HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends as averages are \u201cstrongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The actual \u2014 not seasonally adjusted \u2014 national average home price hit $720,850 in November, an increase of 19.6% compared to the same month in 2020. When removing Greater Vancouver and the GTA from the equation, the national average price falls $158,000 to $562,850.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In British Columbia, annual price growth climbed to nearly 25% in November, but remains lower in Vancouver and higher in other areas of the province.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile in Ontario, the GTA reported a 30% rise in prices year-to-year after sluggish growth was seen throughout most of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Annual price increases in Montreal remain just over 20%. Quebec City reported half of this growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alberta and Saskatchewan reported yearly price increases within the mid-to-high single-digit range while prices in Manitoba have jumped 13%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2022 home sales to drop, but prices will continue to climb through spring<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a separate quarterly report released today, CREA updated its forecast for next year, stating that national home sales are expected to fall 8.6% to around 610,700 units in 2022. The national average home price is also predicted to increase by a further 7.6% annually to $739,500.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, CREA noted that this is a conservative estimate given that November\u2019s national average price was almost $721,000.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cLimited supply, higher prices and higher interest rates are expected to tap the brakes on activity in 2022 compared to 2021; although, increased churn in resale markets resulting from the COVID-19-related shake-up is expected to continue to boost activity above what was normal before COVID-19,\u201d stated the report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.livabl.com\/2021\/12\/canadian-housing-november-2022.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CREA Warns, &#8220;Next Year&#8217;s Spring Market Will No Doubt Be an Interesting One&#8221;<\/a> by Michelle McNally | Livabl<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Heading into the end of 2021, the Canadian housing market reported an uptick in sales as available inventory remained extremely low. Today, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released its &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2021\/12\/crea-2022-home-sales-to-drop-but-prices-will-continue-to-climb-through-spring\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CREA 2022 Home Sales to Drop, But Prices will Continue to Climb Through Spring &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2021\/12\/crea-2022-home-sales-to-drop-but-prices-will-continue-to-climb-through-spring\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"CREA 2022 Home Sales to Drop, But Prices will Continue to Climb Through Spring &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Heading into the end of 2021, the Canadian housing market reported an uptick in sales as available inventory remained extremely low. 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