{"id":19218,"date":"2022-01-18T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-18T18:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=19218"},"modified":"2022-01-10T10:41:58","modified_gmt":"2022-01-10T18:41:58","slug":"forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2022\/01\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting A National 15% Drop in Home Sales Y\/Y, Rising Home Prices in 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Most of Canada\u2019s biggest mortgage lenders and its largest real estate groups are forecasting a robust housing market this year, with some expecting double-digit sale increases and sharp price hikes, despite rising lending rates and a shortage of homes for sale.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CIBC, however, believes overall residential sales will decline this year, though condo prices could rise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And the <strong>BC Real Estate Association<\/strong> sees the provincial sales pace slowing, with a 15% decline in home transactions in 2022, compared with the record-setting pace of 2021.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The outlook from most analysts parallels that of the <strong>Canadian Real Estate Association<\/strong>, which expects 2022 home sales to increase 8.6% compared with last year, with prices rising 7.6%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Royal LePage<\/strong>, citing rising immigration, predicts that average house prices will increase 10.5% in 2022. <strong>Re\/Max Canada<\/strong> sees a 9.2% price increase, year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">All the forecasts, however, are shadowed by the fact that most analysts expect the Bank of Canada overnight lending rate to increase from its current setting of 0.25% to 1.25% by the end of 2022 in a series of hikes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The Royal Bank of Canada<\/strong> predicts 2022 home sales to increase 19.8% from a year earlier, with the average home price increasing 3.3%. \u201cWe expect extremely tight demand-supply conditions will keep prices under intense upward pressure in the near term though we see such pressure easing significantly by the second half of 2022 as markets achieve a better balance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The Toronto Dominion Bank<\/strong> is forecasting a 7% increase in home prices this year, noting, \u201cboth new and resale markets remain drum-tight, suggesting another strong year for price growth is in the cards for 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce<\/strong> (CIBC) is the outlier, cautioning that home sales could drop in 2022 and condos may be the only sector to see price growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOverall, we expect sales to fall by 15% in 2022, relative to the elevated level seen in 2021\u2014an environment that is consistent with a notable deceleration in home price inflation next year,\u201d wrote CIBC economist Benjamin Tal. \u201cThis environment is also likely to impact the relative value of condos vs. a single-detached unit. Logic suggests that higher rates will channel more activity into the more affordable condo market, resulting in relative price outperformance in that market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/biv.com\/article\/2022\/01\/economists-forecast-rising-home-sales-prices-2022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Economists Forecast Rising Home Sales, Prices in 2022<\/a> by Western Investor | BIV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most of Canada\u2019s biggest mortgage lenders and its largest real estate groups are forecasting a robust housing market this year, with some expecting double-digit sale increases and sharp price hikes, &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2022\/01\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecasting A National 15% Drop in Home Sales Y\/Y, Rising Home Prices in 2022 &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2022\/01\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Forecasting A National 15% Drop in Home Sales Y\/Y, Rising Home Prices in 2022 &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Most of Canada\u2019s biggest mortgage lenders and its largest real estate groups are forecasting a robust housing market this year, with some expecting double-digit sale increases and sharp price hikes, &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2022\\\/01\\\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2022\\\/01\\\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"Forecasting A National 15% Drop in Home Sales Y\\\/Y, Rising Home Prices in 2022\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-01-18T18:10:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2022\\\/01\\\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":380,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Market Updates\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2022\\\/01\\\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2022\\\/01\\\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2022\\\/01\\\/forecasting-a-national-15-drop-in-home-sales-y-y-rising-home-prices-in-2022\\\/\",\"name\":\"Forecasting A National 15% Drop in Home Sales Y\\\/Y, Rising Home Prices in 2022 &#8226; 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