{"id":20521,"date":"2022-09-08T10:10:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-08T17:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=20521"},"modified":"2022-09-08T10:23:34","modified_gmt":"2022-09-08T17:23:34","slug":"what-to-expect-canadas-real-estate-maarket-this-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2022\/09\/what-to-expect-canadas-real-estate-maarket-this-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"What to Expect Canada&#8217;s Real Estate Market This Fall?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After fuelling Canada&#8217;s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate market is showing signs of weakness as home prices fall and bidding wars dissipate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It&#8217;s welcome news for prospective buyers hoping for a better price. But as the busy fall season nears, realtors and economists are at odds over how long the pricing slide will last and how low it will go.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;The fall is going to be interesting because we&#8217;re going to see probably more buyers jumping into the market and you don&#8217;t need a ton more buyers to provide a little bit more stability to prices,&#8221; said John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty Inc. in Toronto.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;Just a little bit of a bump in demand could be the difference between homes selling in three, four weeks versus selling in two weeks or selling a lot faster.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The average home price is still above pre-pandemic levels, but increasing mortgage rates and inflationary pressures are weighing on the market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When pandemic lockdowns began in March 2020, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said the average home price in the area &#8211; one of Canada&#8217;s hottest &#8211; sat at $902,680. Last month, it was $1,074,754, a 1% hike from July 2021, but a 6% drop from June 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed prices hit $629,971 in July, down 5% from $662,924 last July. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it amounted to $650,760, a 3% drop from June. When pandemic lockdowns began in March 2020, the average national price was $543,920.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The association forecast the national average home price will rise by 10.8% on an annual basis to $762,386 by the end of 2022 and hit $786,252 in 2023.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But some economists are anticipating an even greater price reduction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In June, a trio of Desjardins economists said they expected the average national home price to fall by 15% between its February high \u2014 $817,253 \u2014 and the end of 2023, but because &#8220;we&#8217;re almost there,&#8221; they adjusted their forecast in August to predict a drop between 20% and 25%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;Home prices continue to fall and have further to go before they find a bottom,&#8221; said Randall Bartlett, H\u00e9l\u00e8ne B\u00e9gin and Marc Desormeaux, in a report released July 11.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;That said, we still believe home prices will end 2023 above pre-pandemic levels nationally and in all 10 provinces.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In anticipation of a drop in prices, agents have noticed prospective buyers sitting on the sidelines of the market in recent months, while sellers come to terms with the fact that their homes won&#8217;t fetch as much money as they would have at the start of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lori Fralic calls it a &#8220;stalemate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;We are seeing lowball offers,&#8221; said the Vancouver agent with Keller Williams Realty VanCentral.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;There&#8217;s lots of bargain hunters out there who are throwing out offers but if they don&#8217;t have to sell, a lot of sellers are saying, &#8216;no, sorry, not taking it.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It&#8217;s a change from the torrid pace of sales and frenzied bidding wars seen earlier in the year and late last year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Much of the shift is attributable to mortgage rates, which mirror fluctuations in interests rates and can eat into buying power.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Bank of Canada increased its key interest rate by one percentage point to 2.5% in July in the largest hike the country has seen in 24 years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Economists foresee the increases continuing and Fralic said they&#8217;re already encouraging people who don&#8217;t need to buy immediately to hold off.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">She&#8217;s seen a drop in prices in BC, but said it&#8217;s not as much of a decrease as many expected.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;If people are thinking (prices) are going to plummet, I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s accurate,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;If you look at the 10-year average of Metro Vancouver, housing prices are way up and if they do dip, they might dip slightly and come back up. There&#8217;s always been sort of a steady incline with dips along the way.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said the composite benchmark price for the region \u2014 often Canada&#8217;s hottest \u2014 sat at more than $1.2 million in July, a roughly 10% increase from July 2021 and a 2% drop from June 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;It&#8217;s anyone&#8217;s guess how much prices will fall,&#8221; Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Markets, she said, tend to be very localized and the surges or drops some see may not be mimicked in others.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, she said Alberta has not seen the slowdown many other Canadian markets have because its energy sector is much stronger than it was in the past.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Cooper noted home sales activity have declined very sharply in the Greater Toronto Area, the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area and in parts of British Columbia around Vancouver.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;It&#8217;s the markets that experienced the 50% increase in home prices that have seen the biggest correction, and that&#8217;s what you&#8217;d expect because those are the most expensive homes in Canada with the largest outstanding mortgages.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnnbloomberg.ca\/canada-s-real-estate-market-is-cooling-here-s-what-to-expect-this-fall-1.1810846\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Canada&#8217;s Real Estate Market is Cooling. Here&#8217;s What to Expect This Fall<\/a> by Tara Deschamps | The Canadian Press | BNN Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After fuelling Canada&#8217;s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate market is showing signs of weakness as home prices fall and bidding wars dissipate. It&#8217;s welcome news for prospective &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2022\/09\/what-to-expect-canadas-real-estate-maarket-this-fall\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What to Expect Canada&#039;s Real Estate Market This Fall? &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2022\/09\/what-to-expect-canadas-real-estate-maarket-this-fall\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"What to Expect Canada&#039;s Real Estate Market This Fall? &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"After fuelling Canada&#8217;s economy through the COVID-19 pandemic, the real estate market is showing signs of weakness as home prices fall and bidding wars dissipate. 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