{"id":24793,"date":"2024-10-24T10:10:08","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T17:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=24793"},"modified":"2024-10-24T07:04:56","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T14:04:56","slug":"canadian-urban-rural-housing-starts-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2024\/10\/canadian-urban-rural-housing-starts-trends\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Urban &#038; Rural Housing Starts Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The housing market in Canada continues to show a mixture of growth and decline across various regions and housing types.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Housing Starts Data for August 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As of September 2024, CMHC reported a decline in the six-month trend in housing starts, which fell 2.9% from 255,794 units in July to 248,480 units in August. The trend measure, calculated as a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of total housing starts, reflects the overall cooling of the market across Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A sharp 22% decrease in the total monthly SAAR for housing starts was seen, dropping from 279,804 units in July to 217,405 units in August. This decline represents a shift in the construction sector, which had been seeing stronger numbers earlier in the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Urban and Rural Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Canada\u2019s urban centers\u2014defined as areas with populations of 10,000 or more\u2014housing starts numbers decreased by 24% in August, totalling 199,478 units. This reduction was largely driven by a significant 29% drop in multi-unit urban starts, which fell to 154,290 units. However, there was a small silver lining: single-detached urban housing starts rose by 3% to 45,188 units.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For rural areas, the picture is slightly different. The monthly SAAR for rural housing starts was estimated at 17,927 units, reflecting a more stable situation in these less densely populated areas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Year-to-Date Performance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite the recent monthly declines, actual housing starts year-to-date (from January to August 2024) present a more encouraging picture. There have been 149,922 housing starts recorded in Canada\u2019s urban centers, up 5% compared to the same period in 2023, when 143,229 starts were recorded.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Regional Variance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Not all regions are experiencing growth. For example, in Ontario and British Columbia, year-to-date housing starts have fallen across all housing types, while year-to-date growth was propelled by increased construction in Alberta, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces, where both multi-unit and single-detached starts have risen. Notably, Vancouver and Toronto saw decreases in housing starts, with Vancouver down 20% and Toronto down 14% year-to-date, but it is important to recognize also that both cities experienced record-high construction activity in 2023.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Key Cities<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Montreal<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Montreal has seen an increase in housing starts, which are up 39% year-to-date compared to 2023. This rebound suggests a recovery from historically low construction activity in the city the previous year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vancouver<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to CMHC, actual housing starts in Vancouver were down 20% year-to-date as of August 2024 compared to 2023, although, again, it is important to note that 2023 was a record year for construction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Edge Realty\u2019s September Metro Report further reports that the number of dwellings under construction in the metro region rose 0.9% month-over-month in July, reaching 65,000 units in total. However, only 3,700 of these were single-family homes, compared to 21,800 rental units and 39,900 condos. It also reported that housing starts in Vancouver were down 15% year-over-year, with single-family starts dropping by 20%, the lowest tally in the past 30 years, and suggested that the lack of new supply in the single-family market could contribute to long-term housing shortages, particularly as demand remains strong.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The focus on condo and rental unit construction in Vancouver reflects a shift in the type of housing being built, but the drop in single-family home starts underscores concerns about future supply constraints.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Toronto<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Toronto\u2019s housing market has also experienced significant shifts. According to CMHC, actual housing starts in Toronto were down 14% year-to-date as of August 2024 compared to 2023\u2019s record-high starts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Edge Realty\u2019s September Report adds that construction activity in the GTA rose by 1.1% in July, driven by a 5.5% increase in rental construction. Of the 103,000 dwellings currently under construction across the GTA, 11,000 are single-family homes, 73,000 are condos and 19,000 are rentals. Housing starts were up 6% year-over-year in July, led by rental construction, which saw the highest number of starts in any month since at least 1990.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite the increase in rental construction, the single-family housing market in Toronto remains in decline. Only 8,300 single-family homes have been started in the past 12 months, a figure approaching 30-year lows. Edge Realty also warned of a significant slowdown in condo starts in the near future, citing an 83% decline in new condo sales from 2021 levels, noting that new condo sales typically lead starts by about 18 months. As a result, the current sales downturn signals a likely reduction in future condo starts. The report also warned of future supply shortages.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca\/news\/canadas-housing-starts-update-september-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Canada\u2019s Housing Starts Update : September 2024<\/a> by Joanna Gerber | Canadian Real Estate Wealth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The housing market in Canada continues to show a mixture of growth and decline across various regions and housing types. Housing Starts Data for August 2024 As of September 2024, &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2024\/10\/canadian-urban-rural-housing-starts-trends\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,27,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-pre-sale-projects","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canadian Urban &amp; Rural Housing Starts Trends &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2024\/10\/canadian-urban-rural-housing-starts-trends\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Canadian Urban &amp; Rural Housing Starts Trends &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The housing market in Canada continues to show a mixture of growth and decline across various regions and housing types. 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