{"id":25583,"date":"2025-04-01T11:11:07","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T18:11:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=25583"},"modified":"2025-03-26T11:42:04","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T18:42:04","slug":"rates-are-falling-but-a-chilly-spring-housing-market-could-be-in-store-for-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/04\/rates-are-falling-but-a-chilly-spring-housing-market-could-be-in-store-for-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"Rates are Falling, But A Chilly Spring Housing Market Could Be in Store for Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">US president Donald Trump\u2019s trade war with Canada is rolling on \u2013 and don\u2019t expect the huge uncertainty it\u2019s casting over the Canadian economy to disappear anytime soon.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem reiterated in a Calgary speech on Friday that the country continues to face an economic crisis borne by Trump\u2019s tariffs and underlined the enormous lack of clarity caused by the US administration\u2019s unpredictability on the issue.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There remains \u201ca lot we don\u2019t know,\u201d the central bank chief said \u2013 not least how long new tariffs on steel and aluminum, and goods uncompliant with the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement, will remain in place.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What\u2019s more, it\u2019s unclear whether new tariffs will come into play in other areas. \u201cIn the last two months, the US administration has twice imposed and then retracted universal tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico,\u201d Macklem pointed out. \u201cPresident Trump has also threatened to extend tariffs to a wide range of industries, including autos, semi-conductors and pharmaceuticals.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Trump has also touted April 2, the date so-called \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs on many countries are set to come into play, as \u201cLIBERATION DAY IN AMERICA\u201d although Macklem noted it remains unclear precisely what those measures will entail.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Don\u2019t bet on a full pause on BoC rate cuts through the rest of the year<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Speaking after the Bank of Canada\u2019s decision to trim interest rates in March and prior to Macklem\u2019s latest comments, Bank of Montreal (BMO) chief economist Doug Porter (pictured) told Canadian Mortgage Professional the central bank was clearly taking a measured approach as it navigated the trade chaos, particularly as it keeps a close eye on the consumer price index (CPI).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe Bank is saying they\u2019re going to proceed cautiously,\u201d he said. \u201cThey can\u2019t fight the trade war. There\u2019s upside risk to inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cBut we believe, while all of that is true, the massive risk to [economic] growth will eventually dominate here, and whatever upside risks are to inflation from a weak currency and retaliatory tariffs will eventually get swamped by the hit to our export industries and when people start losing their jobs in manufacturing, I think that\u2019s really going to undercut most of the inflationary pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Benjamin Reitzes, BMO\u2019s managing director, Canadian rates, said Macklem\u2019s Friday comments indicated the central bank was reluctant in the short term to continue cutting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIf the Bank has more certainty around tariffs in April, that could help firm up the policy path,\u201d he wrote, but said its \u201cappetite for further rate cuts appears to be muted, at least for now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">How will the Federal Reserve\u2019s approach impact the Bank of Canada?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Canada\u2019s central bank continuing to cut rates while the Federal Reserve south of the border holds steady can also damage the loonie, with the Fed opting against a rate reduction last week despite the growing economic uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But the Fed\u2019s so-called \u201cdot plot\u201d \u2013 which measures officials\u2019 rate expectations \u2013 still shows officials expect two cuts before the end of the year, even if more members are slightly more hawkish than in December about the prospect of zero moves in 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The US central bank\u2019s statement also said the Fed Committee would be prepared to adjust its stance on monetary policy if it deems necessary.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Porter said the prospect of Fed cuts down the line would alleviate some concerns for the loonie. \u201cNo-one\u2019s dismissing the inflation concerns in the US, but it\u2019s the growth worries that are really starting to dominate. And we\u2019re seeing that big time in the equity market,\u201d he said. \u201cEvery time we get a flareup in the trade war, markets actually build in more Fed cuts, not less.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cAnd so this will take a little bit of pressure off the Canadian dollar because the market has really come around on the Fed. A month ago, people were saying the Fed might not cut rates at all this year and some voices out there were even saying they might raise rates. No-one\u2019s talking like that anymore now that we\u2019ve got the possibility of a steep slowdown in the US.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/ca\/mortgage-industry\/market-updates\/further-bank-of-canada-cuts-still-likely-in-2025-despite-cautious-language\/529695\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Further Bank of Canada Cuts Still Likely in 2025 Despite Cautious Language<\/a> by Fergal McAlinden | CMP<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US president Donald Trump\u2019s trade war with Canada is rolling on \u2013 and don\u2019t expect the huge uncertainty it\u2019s casting over the Canadian economy to disappear anytime soon. Bank of &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/04\/rates-are-falling-but-a-chilly-spring-housing-market-could-be-in-store-for-canada\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mortgage","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rates are Falling, But A Chilly Spring Housing Market Could Be in Store for Canada &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/04\/rates-are-falling-but-a-chilly-spring-housing-market-could-be-in-store-for-canada\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Rates are Falling, But A Chilly Spring Housing Market Could Be in Store for Canada &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"US president Donald Trump\u2019s trade war with Canada is rolling on \u2013 and don\u2019t expect the huge uncertainty it\u2019s casting over the Canadian economy to disappear anytime soon. 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