{"id":26076,"date":"2025-07-09T10:10:42","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T17:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=26076"},"modified":"2025-07-09T06:32:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T13:32:01","slug":"condo-markets-in-vancouver-toronto-looking-ahead-a-balanced-condition-in-2026-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/07\/condo-markets-in-vancouver-toronto-looking-ahead-a-balanced-condition-in-2026-2027\/","title":{"rendered":"Condo Markets in Vancouver &#038; Toronto : Looking Ahead A Balanced Condition in 2026\/2027"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A tale of two condo markets continues to unfold in Toronto and Vancouver, with the former seeing steeper price declines.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist with the BC Real Estate Association, points to CREA data that shows \u201cwild divergence\u201d between Toronto and Vancouver\u2019s apartment prices since a convergence in 2022, with Toronto\u2019s prices down about 20%, while Vancouver\u2019s are just slightly off from the peak.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThere must be a much bigger amount of excess supply in Toronto than Vancouver,\u201d he told Real Estate Magazine. \u201cIt\u2019s much worse in Toronto.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>What\u2019s Happening in Vancouver?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ogmundson noted that although Vancouver has seen a lot of construction over the past five years, many of those units are still in progress or intended as rentals, so supply hasn\u2019t flooded the market all at once.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">He expects some downward pressure on Vancouver prices soon as inventory accumulates and demand softens, though likely not to the same extent as in Toronto.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Toronto\u2019s Sudden Downturn<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cVancouver is very much lagging Toronto,\u201d said realtor Jarrod Armstrong with Right At Home Realty, noting that Toronto hit a peak in 2022 and the entire industry has been \u201cflipped upside down\u201d since then.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Armstrong said Toronto, where he is based, has been hit by a volley of changes in the last three years, like higher interest rates, a ban on foreign buyers, changes to Airbnb rules, and vacant home taxes, which have all sent investors fleeing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cA lot has really hit the market all at once,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s really a perfect storm hitting the Toronto condo market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Armstrong said Toronto overbuilt small 350- to 450-square-feet condos mainly geared toward investors, but that are not so attractive to other buyers. That has resulted in a surplus of inventory and weak demand, which has sent prices falling.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201c(Small condos) have literally lost a quarter of their value,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019re really just unsellable.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Armstrong said that in a given month, there might be 3,000 condos for sale but only 300 sales. The city is now seeing a fall in preconstruction sales and projects abandoned left and right, according to Armstrong.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To add insult to injury, tariffs from the US have injected uncertainty into the economy that has \u201cruined\u201d the spring condo market, he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Vancouver : Smaller Scale, Similar Issues<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Vancouver, realtor Ron Parpara with eXp Realty told REM that he thinks the main reason prices have fared better there than in Toronto is that it is a smaller city. That means there\u2019s less space to build and less stock to outweigh demand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That said, he noted that the city is still feeling a market slowdown and there has been some dip in prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe\u2019re in a similar situation, just maybe in a little bit of a smaller scale with Toronto,\u201d he said. \u201cSales are not keeping up with the supply.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Parpara said Vancouver has the highest inventory in the last 11 years and there\u2019s more coming online, and they just had the slowest May in the last 20 years. Vancouver has taken similar steps against investors as Toronto, including a vacant home tax and an Airbnb tax, according to Parpara.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As a result, he said about 90% of his transactions now are end users, not investors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Looking Ahead<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So what\u2019s in store for the rest of 2025? Ogmundson predicts that in the short-term, sales will continue to be weak in Toronto and Vancouver due to economic uncertainty and a growing inventory, but there could still be a rebound eventually, given an ongoing housing shortage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Parpara thinks prices in Vancouver will continue to fall, but there will be a more balanced market in 2026\/27 as interest rates come down, while Armstrong agrees that prices will continue to lower in Toronto and it won\u2019t be until 2027 that we see a real change. That\u2019s when there will begin to be constraints on inventory due to a slowdown in new construction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI don\u2019t think we\u2019ve hit bottom,\u201d Armstrong said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/realestatemagazine.ca\/one-country-two-markets-condo-fortunes-drift-further-apart-in-vancouver-and-toronto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">One Country, Two Markets : Condo Fortunes Drift Further Apart in Vancouver and Toronto<\/a> by Eric Stober | Real Estate Magazine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A tale of two condo markets continues to unfold in Toronto and Vancouver, with the former seeing steeper price declines. Brendon Ogmundson, chief economist with the BC Real Estate Association, &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/07\/condo-markets-in-vancouver-toronto-looking-ahead-a-balanced-condition-in-2026-2027\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Condo Markets in Vancouver &amp; Toronto : Looking Ahead A Balanced Condition in 2026\/2027 &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/07\/condo-markets-in-vancouver-toronto-looking-ahead-a-balanced-condition-in-2026-2027\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Condo Markets in Vancouver &amp; Toronto : Looking Ahead A Balanced Condition in 2026\/2027 &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"A tale of two condo markets continues to unfold in Toronto and Vancouver, with the former seeing steeper price declines. 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