{"id":26476,"date":"2025-09-23T10:10:26","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T17:10:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=26476"},"modified":"2025-09-19T09:12:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T16:12:50","slug":"greater-vancouver-housing-market-could-see-short-term-pain-before-long-term-gain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/09\/greater-vancouver-housing-market-could-see-short-term-pain-before-long-term-gain\/","title":{"rendered":"Greater Vancouver Housing Market Could See Short-Term Pain Before Long-Term Gain"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Vancouver housing market is being pulled in different directions, with structural and cyclical dynamics diverging in a \u201ctricky\u201d market, says one economist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The local market is structurally undersupplied, although the current cycle is seeing a pullback in demand, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a housing data and consultancy firm.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOne thing that makes this market really tricky\u2014and it\u2019s almost like acknowledging the elephant in the room but there\u2019s nothing you can do about that elephant\u2014is in Canada, we see two different supply dynamics,\u201d Wolf said during a Sept. 16 presentation in Vancouver.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Headwinds for supply include a \u201crecessionary\u201d economy, job losses and tariff fears. Builders also face a \u201ccost-prohibitive\u201d environment in terms of labour, land, regulation, construction inputs, developer fees and planning delays, she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tailwinds, on the other hand, include off-peak mortgage interest rates, more incentives being offered to buyers and renters, a diversified BC economy, a high quality of life and magnets like universities, she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOnce the market normalizes, once we see a bit more confidence in the economy, once we go through this bumpiness, we\u2019re going to return to that structural undersupply environment,\u201d Wolf said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe\u2019re going to return to a place where people are going to say, \u2018I want to buy more homes and I can\u2019t buy more homes.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There are challenges in the meantime. Wolf cited the highest unemployment rate since 2016 excluding 2020 as well as fewer home sales, which are down 20% in Vancouver from the city\u2019s 10-year average, she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inventory is accumulating. Total re-sale listings in Vancouver are up 20% compared to last year, and up 40% compared to the 10-year average, she said. Meanwhile, there is lower demand due to federal curbs on immigration and foreign students.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cConsumers have more options, but by extension, sellers have more competition,\u201d Wolf said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vancouver housing unaffordability ranks third behind Hong Kong and Sydney among developed nations, she said. Current home values in Vancouver remain 32% higher compared to 2019 despite recently easing in a buyer-friendly market, she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cAffordability looks better than it did the past couple of years [but] not good when you look at the longer-term trend and when you look at the global view,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wolf cited detrimental government interventions, a neutral rather than stimulative policy rate, an exodus of young adults from BC to Alberta and Ontario, and the reported rise in project cancellations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI think things will still get worse before they get better. I think we\u2019re still in a place that we\u2019re going through this reshuffling,\u201d she said. \u201cThe economy to me looks quite recessionary.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, BC has the key ingredients for long-term success, Wolf said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cRight now, cyclically, the market\u2019s weird, the market\u2019s not good. Structurally, longer-term, we see no reason why everyone in this room can\u2019t be successful in the real estate industry given this overall backdrop,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biv.com\/news\/real-estate\/vancouver-housing-market-undersupplied-despite-current-slowdown-says-expert-11233044\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Zonda Economist : Vancouver Housing Market Undersupplied Despite Current Slowdown<\/a> by Jami Makan | BIV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Vancouver housing market is being pulled in different directions, with structural and cyclical dynamics diverging in a \u201ctricky\u201d market, says one economist. The local market is structurally undersupplied, although &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/09\/greater-vancouver-housing-market-could-see-short-term-pain-before-long-term-gain\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Greater Vancouver Housing Market Could See Short-Term Pain Before Long-Term Gain &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/09\/greater-vancouver-housing-market-could-see-short-term-pain-before-long-term-gain\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Greater Vancouver Housing Market Could See Short-Term Pain Before Long-Term Gain &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The Vancouver housing market is being pulled in different directions, with structural and cyclical dynamics diverging in a \u201ctricky\u201d market, says one economist. 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