{"id":26782,"date":"2025-11-12T10:10:35","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T18:10:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=26782"},"modified":"2025-11-10T10:22:53","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T18:22:53","slug":"a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/11\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\/","title":{"rendered":"A Firmer Housing Market Recovery Should Gradually Emerge as Economic Momentum Builds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A defining theme this fall is homebuyers\u2019 measured approach despite lower interest rates and growing confidence that worst-case economic scenarios are less likely.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Local markets appear generally softer than last fall. Yet, early results from real estate boards reveal monthly increases in home resales in several key centres.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Saskatoon, and Montreal experienced notable upticks in home resales in October from September. Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, and Toronto, however, recorded modest declines.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Increased inventory provided buyers with more options and greater negotiating power in Ontario, British Columbia, and parts of Alberta. Softening labour markets and persistently poor affordability continued restraining purchases.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In other regions, low supply and rising home values create different barriers for transactions as buyers contend with limited choice, and higher prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We anticipate these diverging trends will persist through the remainder of year, and potentially into early 2026.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, a firmer recovery should gradually emerge as economic momentum builds, and labour market conditions improve\u2014setting the stage for more robust activity ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Toronto Area : Stagnant Pace<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Toronto area has been stuck in the last three months with home resales close to 25% below pre-pandemic norms. A small 2.3% monthly decline in October entirely offset September\u2019s gain.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Home prices are also in a holding pattern. The composite MLS Home Price Index continues to decline about 5% from a year ago\u2014which has been the case since spring.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The lack of buyer zeal likely reflects a combination of factors including tariff-related economic uncertainty, grimmer job prospects, lower immigration and little urgency to strike deals when inventory is high, and prices decline.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We think recent interest rate cuts will draw buyers from the sidelines, but any recovery is likely to be spotty with poor affordability still a massive obstacle.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">An abundance of homes for sale relative to demand is weighing on values. We expect this to continue in the coming months with condo prices facing the strongest downward pressure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Montreal Area : Breaking From The Summer Lull?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Montreal buyers were more active last month despite fewer sellers putting properties on the market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We estimate home resales rose more than 5% seasonally adjusted in October from September. This would mark a break from the summer\u2019s constrained activity if sustained.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Low inventory and tight new supply compared to demand maintains strong competition between buyers, fuelling moderate price increases.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Single-detached homes are gaining the most in value with the median price rising 7.3% in the past year. However, condo values are also up, but by a weaker 3.6%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We expect continuing gradual recovery as lower interest rates, and rebuilding confidence drive demand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Vancouver Area : Fall Yet to Kick-Start Market<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The overall picture remains cloudy for Vancouver\u2019s market. A pick-up in resales in October\u2014an estimated 7% gain from September seasonally adjusted\u2014only reversed a similar drop the previous month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buyers\u2019 struggle with poor affordability is keeping them hesitant to make a move under the current uncertain economic environment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The inventory of homes for sale is abundant, providing more options and time for buyers to decide. It also bolsters their hand in negotiating prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Home values have been declining mildly since the start of this year with October\u2019s MLS HPI down 3.4% from a year ago.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We expect high inventory and the ongoing affordability struggle will drive prices down further in the coming months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Calgary : Buyers Have More Options<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Calgary market has been largely flat since summer. We estimate home resales increased nearly 5% last month from September seasonally adjusted, but followed a decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A flat trend doesn\u2019t mean that activity is weak, though. October resales were more than 40% above pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Declining prices aren\u2019t necessarily a sign of softness either. They\u2019re mainly a result of strong housing construction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A ramp-up in homebuilding has significantly boosted supply in Calgary, which now looks more balanced with demand. Inventory of homes for sale has climbed to a seven-year high, creating more competition for sellers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Calgary\u2019s MLS HPI has fallen 4.1% over the past year, and looks set to ease further. A record number of homes under construction will likely continue boosting supply and keep buyers in the driver\u2019s seat for price negotiations.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/thought-leadership\/economics\/canadianhousing\/special-housing-reports\/fall-doesnt-ignite-activity-across-many-canadian-housing-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fall Doesn&#8217;t Ignite Activity Across Many Canadian Housing Markets<\/a> by Robert Hogue | Assistant Chief Economist | RBC<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A defining theme this fall is homebuyers\u2019 measured approach despite lower interest rates and growing confidence that worst-case economic scenarios are less likely. Local markets appear generally softer than last &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/11\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Firmer Housing Market Recovery Should Gradually Emerge as Economic Momentum Builds &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/11\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"A Firmer Housing Market Recovery Should Gradually Emerge as Economic Momentum Builds &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"A defining theme this fall is homebuyers\u2019 measured approach despite lower interest rates and growing confidence that worst-case economic scenarios are less likely. Local markets appear generally softer than last &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"A Firmer Housing Market Recovery Should Gradually Emerge as Economic Momentum Builds\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-12T18:10:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":720,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Market Updates\",\"Real Estate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/a-firmer-housing-market-recovery-should-gradually-emerge-as-economic-momentum-builds\\\/\",\"name\":\"A Firmer Housing Market Recovery Should Gradually Emerge as Economic Momentum Builds &#8226; 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