{"id":26952,"date":"2025-12-17T10:10:55","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T18:10:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=26952"},"modified":"2025-12-16T18:32:09","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T02:32:09","slug":"canadian-housing-market-a-holding-pattern-heading-into-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/12\/canadian-housing-market-a-holding-pattern-heading-into-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Housing Market A Holding Pattern Heading Into 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ottawa, ON December 15 2025 \u2013 The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS\u00ae Systems declined 0.6% on a month-over-month basis in November 2025, still well above April levels but mostly unchanged since July.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cAt this point it\u2019s looking like the mid-year rally in housing demand has veered into more of a holding pattern heading into 2026, coupled with what looks like some price concessions in November in order to get deals done before the end of the year,\u201d said Shaun Cathcart, CREA\u2019s Senior Economist. \u201cThat said, the Bank of Canada\u2019s clear signal that rates are now about as good as they\u2019re likely going to get is the green light many fixed-rate borrowers have no doubt been waiting for, so we remain of the view that activity will continue to pick up next year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>November Highlights :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>\u2022 National home sales declined 0.6% month-over-month.<\/em><br \/>\n<em>\u2022 Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 10.7% below November 2024.<\/em><br \/>\n<em>\u2022 The number of newly listed properties declined 1.6% on a month-over-month basis.<\/em><br \/>\n<em>\u2022 The MLS\u00ae Home Price Index (HPI) dipped 0.4% month-over-month and was down 3.7% on a year-over-year basis.<\/em><br \/>\n<em>\u2022 The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was down 2% on a year-over-year basis.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">New supply declined 1.6% month-over-month in November. Combined with a smaller decrease in sales activity, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 52.7% compared to 52.2% in October. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There were 173,000 properties listed for sale across all Canadian MLS\u00ae Systems at the end of November 2025, up 8.5% from a year earlier but 2.5% below the long-term average for that time of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201c2025 was initially expected to be the year that housing markets came out of their interest rate-induced hibernation, but as we all know, the rug was pulled out from under that recovery by the economic shock of U.S. tariffs,\u201d said Val\u00e9rie Paquin, CREA Chair. \u201cWith interest rates now even lower as a result of a softer economy, the focus shifts to the spring of 2026, and whether we\u2019ll finally see the return of more normal levels of housing activity. The 2026 market is just around the corner, so if you want to be a part of it, contact a local REALTOR\u00ae to start planning today.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2025, basically unchanged from July, August, September, and October. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is five months of inventory.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller\u2019s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer\u2019s market would be above 6.4 months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The National Composite MLS\u00ae Home Price Index (HPI) fell by 0.4% between October and November 2025, suggesting some sellers are making price concessions to get properties sold before the end of the year. The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS\u00ae HPI was down 3.7% compared to November 2024.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $682,219 in November 2025, down 2% from November 2024.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stats.crea.ca\/en-CA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Canadian Home Sales Holding Steady Heading Into 2026<\/a> by CREA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ottawa, ON December 15 2025 \u2013 The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS\u00ae Systems declined 0.6% on a month-over-month basis in November 2025, still well above April levels &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2025\/12\/canadian-housing-market-a-holding-pattern-heading-into-2026\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Canadian Housing Market A Holding Pattern Heading Into 2026 &#8226; 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