{"id":27004,"date":"2026-01-08T11:11:23","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T19:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=27004"},"modified":"2025-12-17T16:17:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T00:17:10","slug":"bc-residential-prices-are-expected-to-decline-commercial-predicts-stability-modest-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/01\/bc-residential-prices-are-expected-to-decline-commercial-predicts-stability-modest-gains\/","title":{"rendered":"BC Residential Prices are Expected to Decline, Commercial Predicts Stability &#038; Modest Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The sands of BC real estate are expected to keep shifting in 2026, with residential woes contrasting with commercial optimism against a backdrop of capital flight and ballooning costs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One developer in the region says the industry may see a \u201cless-is-more approach\u201d in 2026 with many large-scale projects being put on hold despite new rezonings to add density.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe path forward in the short term is that homebuilders are going to focus on smaller, bite-sized types of projects,\u201d said Matthew McClenaghan, president of Vancouver-based Edgar Development Ltd.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This could mean townhomes, income-producing properties and alternatives like hotels and senior housing. With less inventory for the market to absorb, BC cities need to work with developers to reduce fees, taxes and heavy amenity burdens, he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIf you can build homes in Metro Vancouver, you can build homes anywhere in the world,\u201d McClenaghan said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe have to navigate some of the most complex building codes, policies, all that stuff. Not to mention, there\u2019s over 20 municipalities that all have different policies and procedures.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the residential side, a correction shows no sign of letting up. Residential real estate prices in Metro Vancouver are expected to decline over the next year, according to a new internal survey by real estate franchise Royal LePage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Dec. 9 report said the median detached home price is expected to drop 5% from $1,695,700 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $1,610,915 in the fourth quarter of 2026. The median condo price is expected to decline 3% over the same period from $734,900 to $712,853.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The company said these forecasts are based on the trend analyses and market knowledge of its experts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe\u2019re coming down off of some remarkably high prices,\u201d said Randy Ryalls, managing broker with Royal LePage Sterling Realty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cToronto and Vancouver are so expensive that there\u2019s probably a little bit more of a correction that can happen here.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There is a \u201creally good\u201d selection of properties for buyers, and interest rates \u201care probably as low as they\u2019re going to go,\u201d he said, with activity in the bond market driving longer-term mortgage rates to under four per cent, similar to pre-COVID levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sellers, meanwhile, need to be realistic since pricing from a few years ago may no longer be attainable. Sellers who want to transact within 90 days need to be priced \u201cto be next,\u201d Ryalls said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIf you\u2019re priced in the middle of the pack, you probably won\u2019t be successful.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Commercial More Cheery<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Things look rosier on the commercial side, with stability expected in 2026 according to an internal survey by Avison Young (Canada) Inc. released Dec. 8.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The commercial real estate firm said 95% of its Vancouver experts anticipate market activity to be the same or better in 2026 compared to the second half of 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Broken down, 60% of them predict the same level of activity in 2026 and 35% expect an improvement, while five per cent expect lower performance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Office real estate is showing encouraging signs of activity from both the leasing and sale perspectives, with professional services, banks and tech tenants buttressing the market, said Brett Armstrong, principal and Vancouver managing director with Avison Young.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe\u2019ve seen an uptick in leasing activity. I think that\u2019s coupled with the whole return-to-office continuance trend, and also just some of the lack of quality supply that\u2019s in the market,\u201d he said, adding that many tenants are acting well in advance of lease expirations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Industrial is an incredibly tight market due to Vancouver\u2019s role as a trade and logistics gateway, said Shawna Rogowski, leader of the office\u2019s market intelligence team. She said things are looking bright for the city\u2019s commercial sector heading into 2026.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI\u2019m seeing optimism that I think we haven\u2019t felt in quite a while, and really it\u2019s just a vote of confidence in Vancouver and how it continues to just be a very stable, safe investment,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Capital Flight A Concern<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, one real estate bigwig says he believes 2026 will be a challenging year for the sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI think we\u2019re in for a difficult year,\u201d said Ross McCredie, chairman and CEO of Sutton Group Realty Services Ltd.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhat we\u2019re really worried about is the lack of investment that\u2019s coming into Western Canada and specifically BC, and the outflow of money from wealthy corporations or individuals. Capital is leaving the province right now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">B.C.-based developers are pivoting to projects in US markets like Colorado, Texas and California, while government projects are eclipsing the private sector, he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Investment is being squeezed by policy and cost pressures, McCredie said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI\u2019ve run a fairly large brokerage in California before this, and my cost base here [in BC] is about two-thirds more than it was in California, which is not a cheap place either,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOur insurance costs here, simple things like broadband, your cell phone bill\u2014all those things here in British Columbia and Canada are significantly higher than they are in the US, and that just makes us less competitive.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biv.com\/news\/real-estate\/a-tale-of-two-markets-emerges-in-bc-real-estate-for-2026-11637381\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Real Estate for 2026 : A Tale of Two Markets Emerges in BC<\/a> by Jami Makan | BIV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The sands of BC real estate are expected to keep shifting in 2026, with residential woes contrasting with commercial optimism against a backdrop of capital flight and ballooning costs. One &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/01\/bc-residential-prices-are-expected-to-decline-commercial-predicts-stability-modest-gains\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>BC Residential Prices are Expected to Decline, Commercial Predicts Stability &amp; Modest Gains &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/01\/bc-residential-prices-are-expected-to-decline-commercial-predicts-stability-modest-gains\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"BC Residential Prices are Expected to Decline, Commercial Predicts Stability &amp; Modest Gains &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The sands of BC real estate are expected to keep shifting in 2026, with residential woes contrasting with commercial optimism against a backdrop of capital flight and ballooning costs. 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