{"id":27324,"date":"2026-03-05T10:10:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T18:10:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=27324"},"modified":"2026-03-02T09:43:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T17:43:15","slug":"ontario-bc-account-for-most-of-the-price-weakness-housing-market-conditions-elsewhere-remain-balanced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/03\/ontario-bc-account-for-most-of-the-price-weakness-housing-market-conditions-elsewhere-remain-balanced\/","title":{"rendered":"Ontario &#038; BC Account for Most of The Price Weakness, Housing Market Conditions Elsewhere Remain Balanced"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What is traditionally a quiet time of year in Canada\u2019s housing market was especially subdued in January.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last month was the second weakest start to a year since the global financial crisis with home resales falling 5.8% from December, and a steep 16.2% from January 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inclement winter weather (including a major snowstorm hitting Ontario and frigid temperatures in other parts of the country) likely exaggerated the softness.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But, signs of buyer hesitation have been visible since fall when an emerging recovery stalled in the face of persistent affordability challenges, economic uncertainty, and slack in the job market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Sellers Braved The Elements<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Perhaps, more noteworthy is the fact sellers didn\u2019t seem bothered by weather disruptions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">More put homes for sale, boosting new listings by 7.3% from December across Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This added more inventory for buyers to choose from. Active listings climbed 4.5% from a year ago with larger increases in Ontario and British Columbia where activity has slumped the most.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Home Prices Fall at Accelerated Pace<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buyers are using stronger bargaining position to extract price concessions. That resulted in the national composite MLS Home Price Index falling 0.9% from December\u2014representing the 14th straight monthly drop and steepest since late-2023.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ontario and BC account for most of the price weakness in the country, and saw the depreciating trend accelerate in January. Annual decline in the MLS HPI reached -7% in Ontario (compared to -5.7% in December), and -4.9% in BC (-4% the previous month).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Toronto (-8.1%) and Vancouver (-5.7%) experienced significant depreciation in the past year though smaller markets like Hamilton (-9.8%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-9.2%), London (-8.4%), Niagara region (-8.3%) and Fraser Valley (-7.1%) recorded larger declines.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Downward prices are also present in Alberta where the MLS HPI fell 3.2% and 0.5% from a year ago in Calgary and Edmonton, respectively. A wave of supply has played a big role in the provincial market story since the start of 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Most Regions Outside Ontario and BC Holding Up<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Housing market conditions elsewhere generally remain balanced despite softening somewhat in January.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Home prices continued to rise in Regina (5.5% from a year ago), Saskatoon (4.3%), Winnipeg (5.6%), Montreal (5.7%), Quebec City (14.8%), Moncton (11.8%), Fredericton (3.1%) and St. John\u2019s (9.3%).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The MLS HPI, however, is now below where it was a year ago in Ottawa (-1.9%), Saint John (-3.7%) and Halifax (-0.7%), mainly due to sharp increases in listings.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Gradual, Uneven Recovery Remains Our Base Case Scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We expect the housing market recovery to get back on track once weather disruptions subside, and as confidence rebuilds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Past interest rate cuts, brightening job prospects and improving affordability will help unlock some pent-up demand that has accumulated in recent years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, this is poised to be a gradual process with diverging regional trends persisting through most of 2026.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We see higher inventories sustaining &#8211; or possibly intensifying &#8211; downward price pressure in Ontario and BC near term, while tighter supply-demand supports further modest appreciation in most other regions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/02\/Canadian-homebuyers-get-cold-feet-sellers-out-in-force-in-January-.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click here<\/a> to view the report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/canadian-housing\/monthly-housing-market-update\/canadian-homebuyers-get-cold-feet-sellers-out-in-force-in-january\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Canadian Homebuyers Get Cold Feet, Sellers Out in Force in January<\/a> by Robert Hogue | RBC Economics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is traditionally a quiet time of year in Canada\u2019s housing market was especially subdued in January. Last month was the second weakest start to a year since the global &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/03\/ontario-bc-account-for-most-of-the-price-weakness-housing-market-conditions-elsewhere-remain-balanced\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ontario &amp; BC Account for Most of The Price Weakness, Housing Market Conditions Elsewhere Remain Balanced &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/03\/ontario-bc-account-for-most-of-the-price-weakness-housing-market-conditions-elsewhere-remain-balanced\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Ontario &amp; BC Account for Most of The Price Weakness, Housing Market Conditions Elsewhere Remain Balanced &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"What is traditionally a quiet time of year in Canada\u2019s housing market was especially subdued in January. 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