{"id":27494,"date":"2026-04-02T10:10:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T17:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=27494"},"modified":"2026-03-26T10:47:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T17:47:15","slug":"vacation-home-prices-expected-to-grow-in-2026-despite-a-damper-on-demand-in-some-provincial-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/04\/vacation-home-prices-expected-to-grow-in-2026-despite-a-damper-on-demand-in-some-provincial-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Vacation Home Prices Expected to Grow in 2026, Despite A Damper on Demand in Some Provincial Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For many Canadians, a cottage or cabin is the ultimate escape from the noise of everyday life. The recreational property market, however, is making some of its own heading into the spring.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The reality, according to Royal LePage\u2019s 2026 Spring Recreational Property Report released Thursday, is the market is being pulled in competing directions. Buyer caution is meeting constrained supply. Demand is steady, but listings are sticking around longer. Recreational condo prices are up, while waterfront homes are down.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The result is that prices are still expected to climb nationally in 2026, even as activity softens in some of the country\u2019s most expensive regions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said the recreational market is snapshot of Canada\u2019s complicated outlook overall.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe recreational market is reflecting the emotional and economic structural reality of Canada right now,\u201d Soper told Real Estate Magazine.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family recreational home will rise four per cent year over year in 2026 to $604,552, with the company citing constrained supply relative to buyer demand expected to put \u201cmodest upward pressure\u201d on prices. Prices were up 4.3% in 2025, reads the report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The weighted median price of a single-family waterfront property fell 5.2% year-over-year in 2025 to $717,600, while condominium prices rose 2.1% to $418,600.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Soper pointed to the country\u2019s priciest urban markets as a key driver of that divergence.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cRegions in the country that are the most expensive, the Golden Horseshoe that stretches from Hamilton around through the GTA in Ontario, and the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, that\u2019s where the urban market is the slowest,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re seeing a direct reflection of that in waterfront properties in BC and Ontario, and that\u2019s pulling down the overall performance of the waterfront single-family home sector relative to non-waterfront.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Atlantic Canada, Prairies are Hot<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Atlantic Canada recorded the highest year-over-year price appreciation for single-family recreational homes in 2025, at 11.8%, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan are forecast to lead the country in 2026 with projected price growth of 5.5%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Soper said the relative economic conditions in resource-based provinces are a driving factor behind the confidence in those markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe call out Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but you could easily include Alberta in that equation,\u201d he said. \u201cThose resource-based regions, with things like potash or oil and gas, are actually feeling better economically and less concerned about future trade negotiations than the exporting heartlands of Ontario, Quebec, or BC.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Soper said each market has its own story. He cautioned against glossing over the national numbers as a single, unified market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cLike the urban residential market, it\u2019s important not to paint the recreational housing sector with a broad brush,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile there has been some softening of buying activity in recreational property markets, conditions vary from coast to coast.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The report, which is based on a recent online survey of 130 Royal LePage brokers and sales reps, found that 52% reported similar buyer demand compared to the same time last year, while 26% reported less demand. Meanwhile, 61% said the average days on market has increased in their region over the past year, a sign that buyers are taking their time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inventory remains relatively stable, with 48% of respondents reporting similar supply levels and 28% reporting lower supply. That constrained inventory relative to demand is a key reason prices continue to rise nationally despite the cautious mood.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The City Calls<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">35% of respondents reported an increase in the number of full-time residents moving back to urban centres over the past year, suggesting an unwinding of the pandemic-era migration to cottage country as workers are called back to the office.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cAs the unemployment situation gets a little more dicey, the weight of the negotiation shifts from employee to employer. And employers are focused on improving collaboration, getting people back in the office,\u201d said Soper.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">He said those who have been enjoying life in the countryside may now be facing four hours of commuting a day, which may have been tolerable for one or two days a week \u2013 not five.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThat becomes untenable pretty quickly, so they decide to put their properties on the market and move back to Toronto,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There could be potential spin-off effects to the upside, said Soper, including a rise in demand for urban condos among those moving back.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe are starting to see some life in the condominium market in the city,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>A &#8220;Marathon, Not A Sprint&#8221; for Many Buyers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pauline Aunger, broker of record at Royal LePage Advantage Real Estate in Rideau Lakes, Ont., says recreational properties in her corridor between Ottawa and Kingston are sitting on the market a little longer than in recent years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">She points to the fading of pandemic-era \u201cfrenzy\u201d as a key factor. \u201cPeople have slowed down as they\u2019re making more thoughtful decisions,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For waterfront buyers in particular, a deliberate pace is part of the game. \u201cBuying a waterfront for many is a marathon, not a sprint,\u201d Aunger said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">She said a combination of factors, from the topography of the land to the home itself, all come into play.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">You\u2019re looking for the perfect match. Sometimes properties stay a little longer as people take their time to digest the information.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/realestatemagazine.ca\/thoughtful-buyers-complicated-markets-cottage-country-this-spring\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Canada&#8217;s Cottage Market is Thriving, Softening and Complicated, All at Once<\/a> by Courtney Zwicker | REM Real Estate Magazine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For many Canadians, a cottage or cabin is the ultimate escape from the noise of everyday life. The recreational property market, however, is making some of its own heading into &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/04\/vacation-home-prices-expected-to-grow-in-2026-despite-a-damper-on-demand-in-some-provincial-market\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Vacation Home Prices Expected to Grow in 2026, Despite A Damper on Demand in Some Provincial Market &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/04\/vacation-home-prices-expected-to-grow-in-2026-despite-a-damper-on-demand-in-some-provincial-market\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Vacation Home Prices Expected to Grow in 2026, Despite A Damper on Demand in Some Provincial Market &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"For many Canadians, a cottage or cabin is the ultimate escape from the noise of everyday life. 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