{"id":27502,"date":"2026-04-02T11:11:56","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T18:11:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=27502"},"modified":"2026-04-02T10:24:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T17:24:03","slug":"the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/04\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\/","title":{"rendered":"The Window for Winning Buyers Over May Finally Be Opening, A Pool of Pent-Up Demand is Waiting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The buyers are out there. They\u2019re just waiting. And according to a new TD Economics report released Thursday, the window for winning them over may finally be opening.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Economist Rishi Sondhi says a pool of pent-up demand is waiting in the wings in markets across Canada, particularly in Ontario and BC, and that improved economic conditions and affordability gains could help unlock it heading into 2027.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The catch? Getting through 2026 first.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sondhi is candid about how much the year has already stumbled. A weaker-than-expected fourth quarter in 2025 and a particularly rough start to 2026 have forced TD to sharply downgrade its forecasts for both home sales and price growth this year. Severe weather in Central and Atlantic Canada was partly to blame for the slow start, but Sondhi noted that weakness was also evident in BC, \u201cwhere conditions were more temperate\u201d \u2014 meaning weather wasn\u2019t the whole story.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sales \u201care likely to take most of the year to recoup first quarter losses,\u201d the report said, held back by a sluggish economy, heightened uncertainty and cost of living pressures that haven\u2019t eased enough to bring buyers back with confidence. Interest rates offer little in the way of relief or further drag: the Bank of Canada is expected to hold steady through the end of 2026, with no major moves anticipated in bond yields either.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>A Country Pulling in Different Directions<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One of the more striking findings in Sondhi\u2019s report is just how differently the country is performing from one province to the next.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Canada\u2019s population actually shrank last year for the first time since Confederation, driven by significant declines in Ontario and BC, the economist writes. Softer rental demand and falling rents in both provinces are discouraging investors, adding pressure on top of already strained affordability. \u201cPent-up demand has yet to re-emerge as quickly as previously expected,\u201d the report noted, which suggests further price declines may still be needed to unlock it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alberta is a different story. The province leads the country in population growth, fuelled by immigration and a steady flow of interprovincial migrants. That in-migration is translating into real housing demand, and Alberta\u2019s markets have rebalanced after a period of rapid supply growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Greater Toronto Area\u2019s condo market stands out as the weakest in the country, with \u201celevated supply needing to be absorbed before prices stabilize.\u201d Buyers hold the advantage across the GTA, the commuter belt, and Southwestern Ontario, while conditions are somewhat firmer in Eastern Ontario and considerably tighter in Northern Ontario.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Oil Surge Adds A wild Card<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Oil prices have shot up amid Middle East tensions, and Sondhi\u2019s report treats that as a genuine mixed bag for Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TD\u2019s working assumption is that the conflict proves shorter-lived, with oil prices moderating after peaking in the second quarter but remaining above the bank\u2019s December forecast for the rest of the year. That\u2019s good news for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. Sondhi\u2019s models suggest average home prices in Alberta could end 2026 roughly one per cent higher than they would have been if oil had tracked December forecasts, with about half that gain pencilled in for Saskatchewan. Newfoundland and Labrador could see a similar lift, with some added upside given how tight that market already is.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The flip side is that rising energy costs eat into purchasing power across the rest of the country, which could weigh on housing demand in provinces that import oil.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Atlantic Canada Holds Up, Quebec Faces A Tougher Second Half<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Atlantic Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to lead the region in price growth this year, a repeat of its 2025 performance. Higher oil prices, tight market conditions and still-affordable housing all help, and the province\u2019s economy is relatively shielded from US trade friction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Interprovincial migrants are still flowing into Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia, supporting demand and prices in both provinces. New Brunswick is the outlier in the region: falling interprovincial migration is behind TD\u2019s view of more modest price gains there.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Quebec enters the year in decent shape, with tight supply-demand balances expected to support solid price growth for the next few months. But a softening economy and a cooling jobs market are expected to weigh on both sales and prices as the year progresses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Across the Prairies, Manitoba and Saskatchewan remain tighter than Alberta, with more limited supply growth. Combined with relatively strong affordability in Saskatchewan, those conditions should support firmer price gains in both provinces.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Where The Risks Lie<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sondhi is careful to note that the outlook could shift in either direction. A longer or broader Middle East conflict would help oil-producing regions but hurt energy importers more. And on the upside, pent-up demand in Ontario and BC \u201ccould be unleashed faster or more forcefully than expected.\u201d The looming renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement is also flagged as a wildcard for the broader economy, and by extension, housing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For now, patience seems to be the watchword. The market hasn\u2019t found its bottom yet in many parts of the country, but TD\u2019s view is that when it does, the buyers waiting on the sidelines won\u2019t stay there for long.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/03\/coquitlam-new-horizons-the-windsor-gate-condos-townhouses-for-sale-updates-as-of-march-26-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TD Cuts Housing Forecast But Warns Pent-Up Demand Could Be &#8220;Unleashed Faster or More Forcefully than Expected&#8221;<\/a> by REM Real Estate Magazine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The buyers are out there. They\u2019re just waiting. And according to a new TD Economics report released Thursday, the window for winning them over may finally be opening. Economist Rishi &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/04\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,8,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-homeselling-homebuying","category-market-updates","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Window for Winning Buyers Over May Finally Be Opening, A Pool of Pent-Up Demand is Waiting &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/04\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The Window for Winning Buyers Over May Finally Be Opening, A Pool of Pent-Up Demand is Waiting &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The buyers are out there. They\u2019re just waiting. And according to a new TD Economics report released Thursday, the window for winning them over may finally be opening. Economist Rishi &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"The Window for Winning Buyers Over May Finally Be Opening, A Pool of Pent-Up Demand is Waiting\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-02T18:11:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":903,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Homeselling | Homebuying\",\"Market Updates\",\"Real Estate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/the-window-for-winning-buyers-over-may-finally-be-opening-a-pool-of-pent-up-demand-is-waiting\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Window for Winning Buyers Over May Finally Be Opening, A Pool of Pent-Up Demand is Waiting &#8226; 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