{"id":28022,"date":"2026-07-07T10:10:45","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T17:10:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=28022"},"modified":"2026-07-06T17:51:31","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T00:51:31","slug":"improving-national-housing-affordability-continues-ownership-costs-have-yet-to-ease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/07\/improving-national-housing-affordability-continues-ownership-costs-have-yet-to-ease\/","title":{"rendered":"Improving National Housing Affordability Continues, Ownership Costs Have Yet to Ease"},"content":{"rendered":"

Condo Affordability Returns to Pre-Pandemic “Normal”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Homeownership has been improving in Canada since early 2024 – particularly for condos.<\/p>\n

Price corrections have been sharper than other housing types, helping restore affordability back to 2019 levels in many markets. RBC\u2019s national condo affordability measure is 35.2%, less than a ppt from Q4 2019. Some markets have even improved from pre-pandemic conditions. Toronto now sits at 36.1% (down from 38.5% in Q4 2019) and Victoria at 31.8% (versus 32.2% in Q4 2019).<\/p>\n

Though relief has been widespread, there are still markets where condo affordability remains meaningfully elevated from pre-pandemic norms.<\/p>\n

Tight supply and the earlier population boom have contributed to an aggressive lift in condo prices in Montreal, Quebec City and Halifax, which have yet to come down meaningfully.<\/p>\n

Montreal\u2019s condo affordability index has even crested over Toronto\u2019s for the first time in 16 years. Halifax\u2019s condo affordability measure is closing in on Toronto\u2019s as well with less than 3 ppts of separation. That\u2019s the closest Halifax has been to Canada\u2019s second most expensive market in more than a decade.<\/p>\n

Ownership Affordability Gains are Tapering Off<\/strong><\/p>\n

The phase of diminishing ownership costs could be nearing an end. Prices appear to be stabilizing in most major markets, and we don\u2019t see additional interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada this year.<\/p>\n

That means income growth would have to do a lot of the heavy lifting to see additional affordability gains\u2014though labour market softness may limit the scope of that relief.<\/p>\n

That said, purchasing power shouldn\u2019t materially deteriorate either. Stable prices and interest rates suggest households will see little change to mortgage costs this year. Labour markets are poised to tighten and should eventually support stronger wage growth, but it\u2019s likely a 2027 story once the cyclical downturn passes.<\/p>\n

Relief is emerging for renters as well. Asking rents continue to fall across most markets with Toronto and Vancouver leading the way\u2014mirroring the ownership market where these two cities are also seeing the largest improvements. Population contractions and stretched affordability are weighing on demand most heavily in these markets, supporting relief in both rental and home ownership.<\/p>\n

Victoria – Still A High Bar to Clear<\/strong><\/p>\n

Victoria\u2019s ongoing market slump\u2019s silver lining is buyers are seeing steady improvement in affordability.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s aggregate measure eased in eight of the past nine quarters, including a notable 2.1 percentage-point drop in Q1. Higher inventory and weak demand are keeping prices on a downward trajectory as sellers show flexibility to get deals done.<\/p>\n

Still, at 63.2% the measure stacks up poorly against most other markets in Canada and continues to be an extremely high bar to clear for potential buyers. We see this further eroding home values near term.<\/p>\n

Vancouver Area – Affordability Relief Insufficient to Unlock Demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ownership costs are coming down fast in the Vancouver area as the market remains in correction mode.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s aggregate measure fell the most among markets we track in Q1, tumbling 4 ppts from Q4, and a sizeable 9.3 ppts from a year ago. While certainly encouraging, progress to date reverses only half the massive deterioration seen during the pandemic, maintaining the measure (84.1%) as the worst in the country by a long shot.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no surprise, then, that housing demand is stuck in a rut\u2014heightened even more by economic uncertainty from the trade war and geopolitical tensions. The fiercely competitive landscape for sellers is likely to keep the price correction going into the second half of this year.<\/p>\n

Calgary – Normalized Affordability Supports Solid Activity<\/strong><\/p>\n

Most of the easing in ownership costs in Calgary are in the rear-view mirror.<\/p>\n

The pace of decline in RBC\u2019s aggregate affordability measure has moderated noticeably in the past three quarters alongside stabilizing home values. But with the measure (41.5%) close to its long-run average (39.8%), the financial burden of owning a home has largely normalized, becoming less of a constraint for prospective buyers.<\/p>\n

Solid activity\u2014resales are running some 25% above pre-pandemic levels despite slowing in the past year\u2014is testament to a generally supportive environment. Alberta\u2019s vibrant economy also stands out against a murkier outlook in other parts of the country with its population still growing at a sustained clip.<\/p>\n

Edmonton – Hurdles Persist<\/strong><\/p>\n

There\u2019s been comparatively less progress in re-establishing a more affordable setting for Edmonton buyers.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s aggregate measure (36.8%) has changed little in the past year, down 0.5 percentage points from Q4 and Q1 a year ago. The gap that persists with the long-term average (32.9%) suggests some buyers face hurdles entering the market, contributing to lower transactions.<\/p>\n

Yet, this is far from a tailspin. Home resales are still very robust\u2014hovering nearly 40% above pre-pandemic levels. The market\u2019s vigour coupled with modest inventory keep home values relatively firm.<\/p>\n

Saskatoon – Strong Earlier Momentum Now Waning<\/strong><\/p>\n

Affordability is unlikely to be an issue for most Saskatoon buyers. RBC\u2019s aggregate measure stood at 32.1% in Q1, just marginally worse than the 30.9% long-term average.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also been gradually improving in the past two years, including by 0.5 ppt in the latest period. This positive backdrop helps sustain some degree of vigour in the market. The number of transactions has exceeded pre-pandemic levels by more than 20% so far this year, though signs of cooling have emerged.<\/p>\n

Economic and geopolitical turbulence could be taking a toll on confidence. Home value appreciation has lost substantial momentum despite still-tight supply and demand.<\/p>\n

Regina – Lack of Sellers Behind Softer Activity<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a similar story in Regina where robust resales have softened somewhat this year. However, that may be more attributable to fewer homes up for sale than any notable erosion in sentiment.<\/p>\n

A decline in new listings since late 2025 has limited options for buyers, and kept supply and demand historically tight. Buyers enjoy the best ownership affordability among the markets we track\u2014a situation that remained stable in Q1.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s aggregate measure edged up just marginally by 0.1 ppt to 27.2%.<\/p>\n

Winnipeg – Ownership Costs Have Yet to Case<\/strong><\/p>\n

Winnipeg is among the few markets where the weight of ownership costs has yet to ease from a decades-high.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s aggregate measure (33%) in Q1 was off only 0.5 ppt from its highest point since 1991. The near lack of relief mainly reflects steady home value appreciation supported by tight supply relative to demand.<\/p>\n

But, elevated costs could be starting to take a toll on activity. Transactions fell 8% over the first five months of this year, dipping slightly below the pre-pandemic mark.<\/p>\n

We think a deeper pullback in demand would be required to knock prices down, and drive a more meaningful improvement in affordability.<\/p>\n

Toronto – Condo Affordability Back to Pre-Pandemic Level<\/strong><\/p>\n

Toronto\u2019s affordability continues to improve at a faster pace than most other markets\u2014dropping 2.2 ppts to 65.2%\u2013though gains remain uneven across housing types.<\/p>\n

Condo prices have declined sharply in recent years and are nearly back to Q4 2019 levels. The price correction, alongside steadily rising incomes, has helped roll back the pandemic-era affordability deterioration entirely.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s affordability index for condos now sits at 35.2%, just above its pre-pandemic level of 34.4% and slightly above the recommended 30% threshold. The split has reshuffled Toronto\u2019s rankings, pushing the region behind Montreal for condos.<\/p>\n

Single-detached home affordability, however, remains severely strained with ownership costs consuming more than 80% of a typical household\u2019s pre-tax income, cementing Toronto\u2019s position as Canada\u2019s second least affordable market overall.<\/p>\n

Ottawa – Still Grappling with Affordability Strains<\/strong><\/p>\n

Affordability in Ottawa has improved modestly, falling 1.4 ppts to 43.2%, though gains remain constrained by the single-detached market. Prices for single-detached homes have held relatively steady, limiting larger improvements to the overall index.<\/p>\n

Condo prices, however, are softening at a steady pace\u2014bringing the affordability measure to 24.4% in Q1 within a ppt of 23.8% in Q4 2019. Still, high ownership costs appear to be constraining overall resales, which remain historically low.<\/p>\n

Montreal – Price Resilience Delays Affordability Recovery<\/strong><\/p>\n

Montreal continues to be an outlier in the Canadian market. Prices remained remarkably resilient through Q1\u20145.5% above a year ago\u2014pushing RBC\u2019s affordability measure to 52.6%, the worst since 1990 and a second consecutive quarter of deterioration.<\/p>\n

That price strength is working against buyers. Resales have cooled considerably over the first half of the year, which is beginning to ease price momentum. Affordability may return to an improving trend if valuations continue to soften\u2014at least for condos where the correction has been concentrated.<\/p>\n

Tight inventory for single-detached homes, however, will likely keep prices propped up.<\/p>\n

Quebec City – Deteriorating Since End of 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

Quebec City is still one of Canada\u2019s hotter markets with home values continuing to climb over most of 2026.<\/p>\n

Unlike most Canadian centres, it never experienced the price correction that enabled affordability gains elsewhere. Rising values and stable interest rates have steadily raised ownership costs over the past two quarters, making Quebec City the only market we track where conditions have not improved since the end of 2023.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s aggregate measure now sits at 39.5%, 9.3 ppts above its 10-year average, marking the largest deterioration to historical norms among all markets we track.<\/p>\n

Still, Quebec City remains among the most affordable of the markets we track, which should continue to support buyer demand\u2014and values\u2014in the months ahead.<\/p>\n

Saint John – Recovery Hitting A Plateau<\/strong><\/p>\n

Saint John\u2019s affordability trajectory has been little changed since Q4 2025, continuing a period of stalled momentum that began in 2024. The aggregate affordability measure edged down marginally to 31.4% in Q1 as values stabilized. Progress has been gradual, leaving the index 9.2 ppts higher than before the pandemic\u2014a larger gap than most markets we track.<\/p>\n

Resales were knocked down in Q1 after gradually creeping higher over most of last year\u2014but April and May data showed signs the market may be finding its footing again. Despite the slower recovery, Saint John remains among the most affordable markets we monitor, which should keep a floor under housing demand.<\/p>\n

Halifax – New Supply Could Support More Affordability Gains<\/strong><\/p>\n

Affording a home in Halifax remains challenging despite some recent improvement in ownership costs.<\/p>\n

RBC\u2019s affordability measure has improved modestly, though Halifax still lags Calgary and Edmonton, where steeper price declines have brought conditions closer to historical norms. The market sits 13.6 ppts above 2019 (now 41.6%)\u2014one of the largest increases since the pandemic.<\/p>\n

A challenging economic backdrop has taken some momentum out of the housing market. Resales declined in Q1 this year\u2014and though values held steady, we expect pressure to ease in the quarters ahead.<\/p>\n

Lots of new housing is expected to hit the market as the number of units under construction has nearly tripled over the last decade. Even though a significant portion of this incoming inventory will be rental, it could still help ownership affordability as additional supply eases overall pressure in the housing system.<\/p>\n

St. John’s – Historically Unaffordable Despite Relative Strength<\/strong><\/p>\n

Home resales in St. John\u2019s remain elevated, suggesting buyers have adapted to current affordability conditions despite the stretch from historical norms. RBC\u2019s aggregate measure sits at 29.3%\u2014just below our 30% threshold for affordability, making it the second best among tracked markets.<\/p>\n

Unlike most markets, St. John\u2019s never experienced the post-2022 price correction, keeping home values on a steady climb since 2020. Tight supply is unlikely to ease given low construction, which will likely sustain price momentum and keep affordability improvements muted near term.<\/p>\n

\nClick here<\/a> to view the market-by-market analysis report.<\/p>\n

Improving Housing Affordability Continues in Most Canadian Major Markets<\/a> by Robert Hogue & Rachel Battaglia | RBC Economics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Condo Affordability Returns to Pre-Pandemic “Normal” Homeownership has been improving in Canada since early 2024 – particularly for condos. 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