{"id":28327,"date":"2026-08-24T11:11:36","date_gmt":"2026-08-24T18:11:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=28327"},"modified":"2026-08-24T08:54:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T15:54:53","slug":"more-turbulence-for-canadian-housing-market-with-2027-rate-increased-potentially-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/08\/more-turbulence-for-canadian-housing-market-with-2027-rate-increased-potentially-on-the-horizon\/","title":{"rendered":"More Turbulence for Canadian Housing Market with 2027 Rate Increased Potentially on The Horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fears of an upsurge in Canadian inflation have soared in 2026, with the onset of the US-Iran war at the end of February spiking oil prices and raising the prospect of a spillover into other consumer costs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In turn, that\u2019s seen financial markets increasingly consider the possibility of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada in the months ahead, a development that would have big repercussions for mortgage rates and the housing market outlook.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While last week\u2019s labour market data delivered a surprise to the tune of 75,000 new jobs added in July, economists still view a central bank rate hike in its next meeting \u2013 scheduled for the beginning of September \u2013 as unlikely.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Most bank economists, including TD\u2019s Andrew Hencic and BMO\u2019s Doug Porter, say the BoC will probably keep rates on hold for the rest of the year and leave their options open as uncertainty about the direction of the conflict in Iran continues.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For now, Porter and BMO say 2027 could also see no rate movement by the Bank \u2013 but if it does act, it\u2019s likelier to be a hike. \u201cEven this (normally dovish) space would allow that the risk for next year is now higher, not lower, rates,\u201d Porter wrote last week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The reemergence of speculation about rate hikes comes as unwelcome news for mortgage market watchers who had hoped the Bank\u2019s next moves would be geared toward cuts rather than increases.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>&#8220;An Additional Negative Force&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The sudden prospect of rate hikes injects fresh uncertainty into a housing market that\u2019s still reeling from the shock of the tariff war launched on Canada and other trading partners early last year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Joel Fox (pictured top), chief operating officer and co-founder of Toronto-based real estate technology firm Ownright, told Canadian Mortgage Professional rate increases by the central bank could weigh down the national market even further.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIf interest rates are adjusted upwards, we just have additional forces impacting the market,\u201d he said. \u201cThat could change the trajectory of the market for the rest of the year \u2013 and it wasn\u2019t overly optimistic in the first place.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Events south of the border, from the trade conflict to the launch of the Iran war, have had an outsized impact on Canada\u2019s economic and housing market outlook, with those factors showing no sign of easing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rate hikes, Fox said, would mark just another hit to the housing sector. \u201cNothing really has changed in terms of the catalyst that\u2019s been impacting the market over the past year and a half,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd if we\u2019re now on the other side of that \u2013 where there\u2019s a real possibility that interest rates are going to hike back up \u2013 that\u2019s just an additional negative force.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Bank of Canada Keeps Its Options Open as Iran War Rumbles On<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For its part, the Bank of Canada has remained tight-lipped on the likely rate path ahead, although minutes from its last meeting reflected growing division among decisionmakers about the strength of the economy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meetings showed \u201ca range of views\u201d among Governing Council members about the economy\u2019s resilience, the Bank revealed, with growing concern about the possibility of rising oil costs impacting prices elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe longer oil prices remain elevated, the bigger the risk that their inflationary effects broaden,\u201d the Bank said. Members emphasized they \u201cwould not let higher oil prices lead to persistent inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The fact that most economists see rates staying on hold for the rest of the year is at least a positive sign, but Fox also doesn\u2019t predict any chance of Canadian consumer and homebuyer sentiment improving until news of a lasting ceasefire in Iran emerges.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There\u2019s no sign of that happening yet, even with the six-month anniversary of the beginning of the war nearing at the end of August.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cFor anything to move to the real, notable positives, you\u2019d almost need both of those things to be true [rate holds and an Iran truce],\u201d he said. \u201cAnd it doesn\u2019t seem overly likely at this point.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/ca\/mortgage-industry\/industry-trends\/what-boc-rate-hikes-would-mean-for-canadas-housing-market\/586022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">What BoC Rate Hikes Would Mean for Canada&#8217;s Housing Market<\/a> by Fergal McAlinden | CMP Canadian Mortgage Professional<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fears of an upsurge in Canadian inflation have soared in 2026, with the onset of the US-Iran war at the end of February spiking oil prices and raising the prospect &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/08\/more-turbulence-for-canadian-housing-market-with-2027-rate-increased-potentially-on-the-horizon\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mortgage","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>More Turbulence for Canadian Housing Market with 2027 Rate Increased Potentially on The Horizon &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/08\/more-turbulence-for-canadian-housing-market-with-2027-rate-increased-potentially-on-the-horizon\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"More Turbulence for Canadian Housing Market with 2027 Rate Increased Potentially on The Horizon &#8226; 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