CREA reported that sales rose 0.5% month over month in July, matching June\u2019s increase and extending the run of gains that began in April. The cumulative direction is positive, but July activity remained 5.3% below the same month last year.<\/p>\n
This is the distinction agents need to make when a client hears that sales are \u201cclimbing.\u201d A market can improve sequentially while remaining weaker on a year-over-year basis. Both things can be true.<\/p>\n
CREA is doing what CREA does : finding the optimistic angle. As is tradition. In fairness, four straight monthly gains are better than four straight declines, and it\u2019s actually very rare to see four months of increases heading into the summer. Sales typically fall in July and August, and volume begins to pick back up in the fall :
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But alas \u2026.. momentum is not volume. For brokerages and agents, a slow recovery in transactions can still mean fewer deals, longer decision cycles and clients who need more education before they move.<\/p>\n
This is just a basic economic equilibrium mechanism at work. A supply response is doing much of the work to get the market balanced. As prices fall, more buyers become willing to buy at that price, and fewer sellers are willing to sell at that price. This is how you reach a balanced market over time, and we\u2019re watching the market try to progress towards equilibrium now.<\/p>\n
When sellers do not like the offers available, some cancel, terminate or wait. That removes inventory without proving that buyers suddenly have more purchasing power. In the July data, national supply was nearly flat from a year earlier even as listings declined month over month.<\/p>\n
There were 205,388 properties for sale at the end of July, just 0.6% more than a year earlier and 1.5% above the long-term average for that point in the calendar. Months of inventory fell to 4.7, the lowest reading of 2026, compared with a long-term average of five months.<\/p>\n
That is a tighter market, but as we\u2019re learning, tighter doesn\u2019t necessarily mean hotter.<\/p>\n
Prices Finally Stopped Falling Month Over Month<\/strong><\/p>\n The National Composite MLS HPI rose 0.1% from June, its first monthly increase since November 2024. The year-over-year decline narrowed to 3.3%, the smallest drop since October 2025 : The bullish case is straightforward : sales have risen for four months, the sales-to-new listings ratio is tightening, inventory is below its long-term norm and benchmark prices finally ticked up. The caution is equally straightforward: July sales were lower than last year, the HPI was still down 3.3%, and the monthly price gain was only 0.1%. Stability is progress, but stability is not acceleration.<\/p>\n The Client Conversation Has to Change<\/strong><\/p>\n At our brokerage operation, we focus on whether a buyer or seller understands the leverage available in their specific segment and local market. The national label is secondary and doesn\u2019t mean a ton to the average buyer, despite it playing a clear role in sentiment.<\/p>\n For buyers, the message is that the broad price decline may be losing momentum. Waiting can still make sense when the property is overpriced or the carrying cost fails the household budget. Assuming that every month will automatically bring a lower benchmark price is becoming harder to defend.<\/p>\n For sellers, balance does not mean 2021 conditions have returned. A 51.3% national sales-to-new listings ratio means roughly one sale for every two new listings entering the market. Pricing ahead of the market can still produce a stale listing, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia, where buyers have had time to become selective.<\/p>\n For agents, this is an expectations market. The best work shows clients the local ratio, the relevant months of inventory, recent comparable sales and what happened to listings that tested an aspirational price.<\/p>\n The Bottom Line : Normalization is Not Recovery<\/strong><\/p>\n July\u2019s data suggests Canada\u2019s housing market is moving away from extremes. Former buyers\u2019 markets are tightening. Former sellers\u2019 markets are cooling. National prices have stopped sliding on a monthly basis, at least for now.<\/p>\n This is healthy. It may also be less exciting than the word \u201crecovery\u201d implies. I think that the market is really looking for less volatility. Since the peak of the market in 2022, all we\u2019ve been hearing about is \u201cuncertainty\u201d and \u201cvolatility\u201d and the like. I imagine there probably is a bit of a pent up demand phenomena forming somewhere in the market. In imagining this, I also have to be aware that we probably pulled forward three to four years of demand into the frenzy of 2020-2022 housing demand, so we may just be getting back to the baseline now. But if there\u2019s pent up demand, where are the buyers? I think they\u2019re waiting for certainty. If they stop seeing absolutely wild prints on housing data, I expect they\u2019ll start creeping back into the market. Nobody wants to lever up and take on the (typical real estate trope) biggest financial decision of their lives in an environment where it feels like the economy could change drastically before their first mortgage payment comes out.<\/p>\n Buyers already have enough to worry about with the stock market, bond yields, oil prices, inflation, unemployment, population growth and trade war. Go take a look at any of those charts over the last 10 years and you\u2019ll see what I\u2019m talking about. We don\u2019t need the housing market charts to look the same. The sooner they stop looking like that, the sooner that real estate resumes its historic status as a flight to quality or safe haven investment.<\/p>\n So \u2026.. we should be welcoming a boring market, if not celebrating it. Not everything needs to be bullish or bearish.<\/p>\n For buyers, the window for patient negotiation remains open, but it may not be widening. For sellers, realistic pricing matters more than waiting for a national headline to rescue the listing. For Realtors, the value is in explaining the difference between a market that is more balanced and one that is genuinely busy.<\/p>\n The first one is here. The second one is still taking its time.<\/p>\n
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The national average sale price was $674,819, up 0.2% from July 2025. Average price and benchmark price measure different things, but both point to stabilization rather than a new price boom. Stabilization eventually gets us to recovery. I think buyers who represent the pent up demand the industry loves to talk about watch prices. If prices are falling, they assume prices will keep falling. If prices fall slower, they assume prices will stop falling soon. If prices are flat, what do they think will happen next? When we start seeing a few months of house prices hovering around 0% on a year-over-year basis, this is when confidence starts to rebuild. Buyers become less concerned that they\u2019re going to lose equity before they take possession of their house. We\u2019re not there yet, but we\u2019re not far from it either. (And yes, I know that adjusted for inflation, they\u2019re still in that position, but let\u2019s set that one aside for a minute. Most buyers think in nominal, not real house price terms.)<\/p>\n