{"id":28669,"date":"2026-11-06T07:11:35","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T15:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=28669"},"modified":"2026-11-06T08:36:19","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T16:36:19","slug":"housing-expectations-weaken-as-higher-inflation-consumer-confidence-stalls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/11\/housing-expectations-weaken-as-higher-inflation-consumer-confidence-stalls\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Expectations Weaken as Higher Inflation &#038; Consumer Confidence Stalls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Canadians are bracing for higher prices even as their faith in the economy and the housing market fades. That combination complicates the Bank of Canada&#8217;s next interest rate decision and the conversations mortgage brokers are having with clients.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index fell to 50.45 in the four weeks ended Oct. 2, from 51.80 a month earlier, according to Nanos Research.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A reading of 50 marks the line between net optimism and net pessimism, so consumer confidence now sits at roughly neutral. That is well below the index&#8217;s long-run average of 54.67.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A separate Nanos poll for Bloomberg News, conducted Sept. 27 to 29, found that 54% of Canadians expect annual inflation to be above the current 3% a year from now. Only 7% expect it to ease.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;The result is a public mood marked less by alarm than by caution: households are holding steady, yet doubts about Canada&#8217;s economic direction continue to cap enthusiasm,&#8221; Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said in the report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Housing Expectations Weaken as Consumer Confidence Stalls<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The weakness shows up mainly in forward-looking views. The index&#8217;s expectations gauge tracks sentiment on the economy and real estate prices, and it dropped to 46.75 from 48.76.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Just 28.54% of respondents expect home values in their neighbourhood to rise over the next six months, down from 32.67% four weeks earlier.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal finances are holding up better. The pocketbook gauge covers finances and job security, and it slipped only to 54.15 from 54.83.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, 39.21% of Canadians said they are worse off than a year ago, compared with 10.60% who feel better off.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sentiment is weakest in British Columbia, at 44.52. In Ontario, the reading fell to 48.53 from 52.42.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among renters, confidence dropped to 48.51 from 54.27 over the same four weeks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>What Do Rising Inflation Expectations Mean for A Bank of Canada Rate Hike?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inflation expectations matter because they can fulfil themselves. If households build higher prices into wage demands or bring purchases forward, the central bank&#8217;s job gets harder.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Governor Tiff Macklem has warned that moving slowly carries its own cost. &#8220;Two things probably have to happen if you&#8217;re too slow: One is, you&#8217;re going to have to raise rates very quickly,&#8221; he said in a recent speech in Halifax.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The policy rate has held at 2.25% since October 2025. Traders in overnight swaps put the odds of a hike at the Oct. 28 meeting at about one in three. Meanwhile, a growing number of major forecasters now expect an October increase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Not every forecaster agrees. Helen Lao, an economist at Toronto-based CIBC Capital Markets, argues that Canada&#8217;s inflation is largely driven by fuel prices. &#8220;In Canada, inflation is much less broad-based,&#8221; she wrote in a report arguing the case for a Canadian hike is weaker than the Fed&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For brokers, the rate debate comes down to the choice between fixed and variable. A quarter-point hike would flow straight through to the prime rate, now 4.45%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Leah Zlatkin, a Toronto-based licensed mortgage broker and LowestRates.ca expert, said the gap between fixed and variable pricing is complicating client conversations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;With variable rates still coming in below comparable fixed rates, I&#8217;m seeing more interest from clients who are weighing whether the lower rate is worth the added uncertainty,&#8221; she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly business and consumer surveys on Oct. 19. They will give a fresh read on household inflation expectations nine days before the rate decision.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/ca\/mortgage-industry\/industry-trends\/housing-optimism-fades-as-canadians-brace-for-higher-inflation\/592699\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Housing Optimism Fades as Canadian Brace for Higher Inflation<\/a> by Liezel Once | CMP Canadian Mortgage Professional<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canadians are bracing for higher prices even as their faith in the economy and the housing market fades. That combination complicates the Bank of Canada&#8217;s next interest rate decision and &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/11\/housing-expectations-weaken-as-higher-inflation-consumer-confidence-stalls\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-mortgage","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Housing Expectations Weaken as Higher Inflation &amp; Consumer Confidence Stalls &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/11\/housing-expectations-weaken-as-higher-inflation-consumer-confidence-stalls\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Housing Expectations Weaken as Higher Inflation &amp; Consumer Confidence Stalls &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Canadians are bracing for higher prices even as their faith in the economy and the housing market fades. That combination complicates the Bank of Canada&#8217;s next interest rate decision and &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/housing-expectations-weaken-as-higher-inflation-consumer-confidence-stalls\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/housing-expectations-weaken-as-higher-inflation-consumer-confidence-stalls\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"Housing Expectations Weaken as Higher Inflation &#038; 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