{"id":28705,"date":"2026-11-04T11:11:04","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T19:11:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=28705"},"modified":"2026-11-04T13:32:20","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T21:32:20","slug":"ontario-and-bc-weigh-on-2026-housing-markets-lenders-saw-the-repricing-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/11\/ontario-and-bc-weigh-on-2026-housing-markets-lenders-saw-the-repricing-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Ontario and BC Weigh on 2026 Housing Markets, Lenders Saw The Repricing Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its home sales forecast for a third straight quarter, now projecting 444,530 residential transactions through Multiple Listing Service\u00ae (MLS\u00ae) Systems.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That would be a 5.2% drop from 2025, as rising fixed mortgage rates and the threat of a Bank of Canada hike sideline buyers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The October 16 revision strips 18,806 sales from CREA\u2019s July estimate, when the association expected a far milder 1.4% annual decline in home sales.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The national average price is now forecast to edge up just 0.2% to $681,681, roughly $5,000 below the summer call.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>How Rising Fixed Mortgage Rates Hit September Home Sales?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CREA said oil prices began climbing again in early September while the Bank of Canada struck a more hawkish tone, with markets now pricing in approximately 100 basis points of hikes by this time next year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which lenders use to price fixed mortgages, closed at 3.60% on October 2, up from 3.35% on September 1.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">September sales fell 2.3% from August and 7.7% from a year earlier. The national average sale price was $666,538, down 1.6% year over year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Lenders saw the repricing coming.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI think rates will probably go up in October. GIC rates are up 35 points in the last sixty to ninety days. Bank of Canada bond rates are up 60 points. Like everything\u2019s been going up already. So it\u2019s just a natural part of the market,\u201d Grant Armstrong, chief growth officer at WealthOne Bank of Canada, said at MortgageFest Canada in Toronto in September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Victor Tran, a mortgage agent at Tango Financial in Toronto, is already seeing borrowers rethink their options.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe variable-rate forecast isn\u2019t looking too good either,\u201d Tran told Canadian Mortgage Professional as bond markets turned volatile in September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cSo we have people sitting in variable rates considering locking into fixed rates, for example.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tracy Valko, founder of AIMI Mortgage Collective, said brokers need to be able to explain those forces to clients.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThere\u2019s a lot of global tensions right now that are affecting our market. What\u2019s affecting bond yields? What affects fixed rates? Agents and brokers should know that. We as mortgage agents and brokers should never predict, but one thing we should do is make sure that we understand the knowledge so we can future-prepare homeowners for what could be coming down the pipeline,\u201d Valko said at the event.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Ontario and BC Weigh on 2026 Home Prices<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CREA expects Ontario\u2019s average price to fall 3% to $809,334 and British Columbia\u2019s to slip 0.8% to $944,685 this year, while Newfoundland and Labrador (5.7%) and Saskatchewan (5%) lead gains.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For 2027, it forecasts a 4.4% rebound to 464,235 sales and a 1.2% price gain to $689,909, assuming limited action from the central bank. Even that recovery would leave sales about 4,400 below 2025 levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Andy Kuyper, head of partnerships and secured lending at TransUnion, was cautious on timing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI\u2019d like to be optimistic. I think we\u2019re facing the reality that with the geopolitical climate and everything that\u2019s happening here, our mortgage industry is probably not ready to rebound. We are seeing slight growth in originations, we\u2019re seeing slight growth in mortgage balances \u2013 a lot more on the refi side,\u201d he said at MortgageFest.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Brokers say the slowdown raises the value of advice over price.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cNow more than ever it\u2019s so important for people to use a mortgage broker rather than their bank, because the banks are specifically just focusing on rates. As we head into a turbulent time where potentially we will see an increase in rates, the banks are putting clients in, say, a variable rate, which may not be the best option for that client \u2013 just because it has a three in front of it,\u201d said Sabeena Bubber, a mortgage broker at Xeva Mortgage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Valko expects little relief. \u201cThe next two years are going to be very similar to what we\u2019re dealing with right now. Staying a best-rate mortgage broker is not going to get you the goals that you want,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dr. Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres (DLC), expects a hike by late 2026 or the first half of 2027.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe have to expect higher interest rates, which also means that fixed-rate mortgages are very attractive now,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpamag.com\/ca\/mortgage-industry\/market-updates\/crea-cuts-its-2026-home-sales-forecast-yet-again\/593847\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CREA Cuts Its 2026 Home Sales Forecast Yet Again<\/a> by Liezel Once | CMP Canadian Mortgage Professional<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its home sales forecast for a third straight quarter, now projecting 444,530 residential transactions through Multiple Listing Service\u00ae (MLS\u00ae) Systems. That would &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/11\/ontario-and-bc-weigh-on-2026-housing-markets-lenders-saw-the-repricing-coming\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,9,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates","category-mortgage","category-real-estate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ontario and BC Weigh on 2026 Housing Markets, Lenders Saw The Repricing Coming &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2026\/11\/ontario-and-bc-weigh-on-2026-housing-markets-lenders-saw-the-repricing-coming\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Ontario and BC Weigh on 2026 Housing Markets, Lenders Saw The Repricing Coming &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its home sales forecast for a third straight quarter, now projecting 444,530 residential transactions through Multiple Listing Service\u00ae (MLS\u00ae) Systems. 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