{"id":3132,"date":"2016-08-24T10:10:47","date_gmt":"2016-08-24T17:10:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=3132"},"modified":"2016-08-23T18:49:47","modified_gmt":"2016-08-24T01:49:47","slug":"this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/08\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\/","title":{"rendered":"This Stat Will Hint at How the Foreign Homebuyer Tax Really Affects Vancouver Housing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Experts say it\u2019s too early to know the full impact of BC\u2019s recent tax on foreign homebuyers in Metro Vancouver, but one forthcoming figure could provide a clue.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI think what may grab the market\u2019s attention will be again on the sales side,\u201d Robert Hogue, a senior economist with RBC, tells BuzzBuzzNews.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cBut certainly I will look very closely at the supply side, the listings side,\u201d he continues, awaiting the release of August\u2019s resale housing market figures from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), expected early September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On August 2nd, the BC government began charging foreign nationals and foreign corporations a 15% property transfer tax on residential real estate purchases.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the days immediately following, West Vancouver home sales have plummeted, according to one realtor\u2019s analysis of MLS numbers, Global News reports.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Just three homes changed hands in West Vancouver from August 1st to the 14th. That\u2019s a steep drop from the 52 transactions recorded over that period a year ago and the bearish finance blog Zero Hedge took this as a sign that \u201cthe Vancouver housing bubble had popped.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But Andy Yan, Simon Fraser University\u2019s acting director for its City Program, says more time is needed to gauge the implications of the tax on local real estate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIt\u2019s really hard to say if it\u2019s just cooling off,\u201d he tells Global. \u201cIt could be that everybody who could or would buy at those really high prices a couple months ago are now already in, and now we just really see how the market is retracting itself,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">RBC\u2019s Hogue isn\u2019t sure a \u201csignificant\u201d drop in sales to foreign nationals would be enough to cool Vancouver\u2019s market overall. \u201cThe big question to me\u2026 has to do with the supply side,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hogue says listings are an important indicator of the impact this new tax is having on local real estate partly because an increase in resale properties on the market may mean investors are looking to offload assets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIf [supply] remains quite stable, I think the odds of outright price declines are low,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The number of new listings in Vancouver rose 2.5% in July compared to activity recorded during the same month last year, according to REBGV\u2019s latest figures.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cNow, if we see\u2026 more listings showing up on the market, then we may see price declines showing up much quicker than we otherwise would anticipate,\u201d Hogue explains.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Forget-sales-drops.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-3134\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Forget-sales-drops-300x248.jpg\" alt=\"Forget sales drops\" width=\"556\" height=\"460\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Forget-sales-drops-300x248.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Forget-sales-drops-768x635.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Forget-sales-drops.jpg 874w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 556px) 100vw, 556px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In recent months Vancouver\u2019s sales-to-active listings ratio has been falling, hitting 38.6% in July, generally among the slowest months for real estate activity in the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ratio is calculated by dividing sales by active listings. REBGV says the ratio is \u201ca measure of balance between supply and demand in the housing market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While the ratio is wilting, it still has a ways to go before the market favours buyers, REBGV suggests. \u201cGenerally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12% mark,\u201d the board said in its July report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The increase in year-over-year July listings was the result of fear rather than anything else, says Morgan Browne, a partner at Oakwyn Realty Vancouver.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIt\u2019s definitely safe to say when that foreign tax came out there was a pressure on listings, because I think the sellers are either misinformed or don\u2019t have the education behind it,\u201d she tells BuzzBuzzNews.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cBecause the media has kind of said, \u2018Okay, everyone that\u2019s purchasing is really a foreign buyer, it was a little bit of a pressure for a majority of people dealing in July and moving into August,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Browne says the biggest impact the tax is having has been on listings.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIt\u2019s just because sellers are really in the mindset that this is the end of the high \u2014 it\u2019s got to end sometime,\u201d the real estate agent says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Like Hogue, BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic will also be taking note of where listings stand next month. \u201cWe always do,\u201d he says in an interview with BuzzBuzzNews.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhat\u2019s interesting is that the market balance has softened a bit just in the five or six months leading up to the tax,\u201d he adds, noting sales have been declining and, also like Hogue, he observes listings are on the rise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe went from an environment where literally almost every new listing was getting absorbed within the month to now something that\u2019s still pretty tight but a lot closer to what is typical for the city \u2014 and that was before the tax took hold,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cDepending on what kind of impact that has, we could see the pace of price growth in some markets soften quite a bit,\u201d Kavcic adds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, falling home prices aren\u2019t something Kavcic expects, even if the provincial government\u2019s real estate tax does manage to quell foreign-buyer activity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In July, the benchmark price of a Metro Vancouver home was $930,400, up 32.6% from a year ago.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Such annual gains are unsustainable, Kavcic says, but he\u2019s calling for price \u201cdeceleration\u201d rather than declines at the moment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a time of low interest rates, income growth around three-to-four per cent and strong demographic and supply fundamentals, Kavcic says price growth of \u201csomething close to 10% year-over-year\u201d could be supported.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIt\u2019s pretty tough to say, it\u2019s pretty tough to put a precise number on it,\u201d he admits of what the post-tax market will look like.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cCertainly you can\u2019t have prices growing at 30% year-over-year forever.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2016\/08\/stat-will-hint-foreign-homebuyer-tax-affects-vancouver.html\" target=\"_blank\">Forget Sales Drops, This Stat Will Hint at How the Foreign Homebuyer Tax Really Affects Vancouver Housing<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Experts say it\u2019s too early to know the full impact of BC\u2019s recent tax on foreign homebuyers in Metro Vancouver, but one forthcoming figure could provide a clue. \u201cI think &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/08\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>This Stat Will Hint at How the Foreign Homebuyer Tax Really Affects Vancouver Housing &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/08\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"This Stat Will Hint at How the Foreign Homebuyer Tax Really Affects Vancouver Housing &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Experts say it\u2019s too early to know the full impact of BC\u2019s recent tax on foreign homebuyers in Metro Vancouver, but one forthcoming figure could provide a clue. \u201cI think &hellip; [read more]\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/Forget-sales-drops.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@RoryClipsham\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Rory Clipsham\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Rory Clipsham\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"headline\":\"This Stat Will Hint at How the Foreign Homebuyer Tax Really Affects Vancouver Housing\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-08-24T17:10:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":956,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/0672b9777e67473b9bd9247df49499c7\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/Forget-sales-drops-300x248.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Market Updates\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.roryc.ca\\\/blog\\\/2016\\\/08\\\/this-stat-will-hint-at-how-the-foreign-homebuyer-tax-really-affects-vancouver-housing\\\/\",\"name\":\"This Stat Will Hint at How the Foreign Homebuyer Tax Really Affects Vancouver Housing &#8226; 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