{"id":3305,"date":"2016-09-09T10:10:22","date_gmt":"2016-09-09T17:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=3305"},"modified":"2016-09-08T14:45:46","modified_gmt":"2016-09-08T21:45:46","slug":"move-over-vancouver-toronto-may-be-canadian-real-estates-unquestioned-leader-in-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/09\/move-over-vancouver-toronto-may-be-canadian-real-estates-unquestioned-leader-in-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"Move Over Vancouver, Toronto May be Canadian Real Estate\u2019s \u201cUnquestioned Leader&#8221; in 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As the second hottest major housing market in Canada, Toronto has been in Vancouver\u2019s shadow for years, but the west coast city\u2019s real estate reign may be nearing an end.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That\u2019s according to Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO, one of the country\u2019s largest banks \u2014 and he says the shift could occur as soon as 2017.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI think those two markets [Toronto and Vancouver] could cross over and Toronto could be the unquestioned leader six months to a year from now,\u201d he tells BuzzBuzzNews.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The recent slowdown in Vancouver\u2019s home sales following a new tax aimed at foreign homebuyers in Metro Vancouver and strong fundamentals in the Toronto market \u2014 such as limited low-rise supply \u2014 are supportive of such a transition, says Kavcic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On August 2nd, the BC government enacted a 15-per-cent-tax on non-residents purchasing residential properties in Metro Vancouver. Home sales that month plummeted.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact, transactions in Metro Vancouver were down by more than 20% on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis in August, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cSales have been trending downward in Metro Vancouver for a few months,\u201d said Dan Morrison, the board\u2019s president, in a statement last week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe new foreign buyer tax appears to have added to this trend by reducing foreign buyer activity and causing some uncertainty amongst local buyers and sellers,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While prices in Metro Vancouver are still sky high \u2014 the benchmark price was $933,100 last month, up 31.4% from a year ago and 4.9%in three months \u2014 Kavcic expects price growth to start cooling shortly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">By early 2017, Kavcic estimates price growth will slow to the single digits in Vancouver.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOn the flipside, there\u2019s not really much to slow Toronto at this point,\u201d he explains. \u201cThere\u2019s nothing on the demand side to slow it. There\u2019s nothing on the supply side, especially for detached homes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In August, the average price of a detached in the GTA was $964,002, an increase of 21.5% from that month last year, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Low interest rates will also continue to support activity, suggests Kavcic. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada maintained the key interest rate, which influences mortgage rates (read how here), at 0.5%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe Bank of Canada was pretty clear yesterday that interest rates are going nowhere any time soon, and we haven\u2019t seen any other government policy intervention like we\u2019ve seen in Vancouver,\u201d he tells BuzzBuzzNews.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kavcic expects the BC tax on foreign buyers to cause more non-residents to look to Toronto as well, further heating the market, but says this was already starting to happen even before the levy was imposed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIt might add to it at the margin,\u201d he says of the measure\u2019s potential for causing more foreign investment in Toronto.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kavcic\u2019s remarks followed his note titled \u201cCanadian Housing\u2019s New Whipping Boy,\u201d published this morning, which suggests Toronto may now be at the forefront of popular discussion concerning real estate in Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a separate note released alongside Kavcic\u2019s, Douglas Porter, BMO\u2019s chief economist, highlighted the need for action from policymakers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWithout some kind of intervention, this [Toronto] market risks becoming a runaway train,\u201d Porter wrote.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kavcic agrees. But he says national measures \u2014 such as this year\u2019s minimum downpayment increase for government-backed mortgages on homes priced $500,000 to $1 million \u2014 could have unintended consequences for other markets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThose are very, very blunt changes that impact the entire market across Canada,\u201d he notes, adding a \u201cvast majority\u201d of local markets aren\u2019t in need of cooling.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cBecause it\u2019s so localized, [the measure] would have to be something similar to what we saw in Vancouver.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2016\/09\/toronto-canadian-real-estates-unquestioned-leader-2017.html\" target=\"_blank\">Move Over Vancouver, Toronto May be Canadian Real Estate\u2019s \u201cUnquestioned Leader&#8221; in 2017<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the second hottest major housing market in Canada, Toronto has been in Vancouver\u2019s shadow for years, but the west coast city\u2019s real estate reign may be nearing an end. &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/09\/move-over-vancouver-toronto-may-be-canadian-real-estates-unquestioned-leader-in-2017\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Move Over Vancouver, Toronto May be Canadian Real Estate\u2019s \u201cUnquestioned Leader&quot; in 2017 &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/09\/move-over-vancouver-toronto-may-be-canadian-real-estates-unquestioned-leader-in-2017\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Move Over Vancouver, Toronto May be Canadian Real Estate\u2019s \u201cUnquestioned Leader&quot; 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