{"id":3756,"date":"2016-10-24T11:11:52","date_gmt":"2016-10-24T18:11:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=3756"},"modified":"2016-10-21T18:34:12","modified_gmt":"2016-10-22T01:34:12","slug":"the-canadian-housing-market-is-headed-for-moderation-not-a-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/10\/the-canadian-housing-market-is-headed-for-moderation-not-a-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"The Canadian Housing Market is Headed for \u201cModeration,\u201d Not a Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Red flags, a possible Vancouver correction and the Ontario and BC housing markets potential to become economic drags: forward-looking narratives for the Canadian housing market haven\u2019t been glowing accounts of late.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moody\u2019s, an economic analysis firm, outlines a different storyline in its latest report, summarized in its title \u201cMore Moderation, No Hard Landing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThere has been a lot of speculation about Canada\u2019s housing markets overheating during the past two years,\u201d writes Moody\u2019s Economist Andres Carbacho-Burgos in the report, published today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe [Moody\u2019s Analytics] house price outlook calls for a deceleration of house price growth, not for a serious decline, though there are exceptions for smaller regions,\u201d it says.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moody\u2019s looks at factors including Canadians\u2019 per-capita disposable income, land values and consumer spending to forecast future home prices in Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It predicts detached home prices will rise 8.7% this year before annual growth begins to slow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For 2017, it calls for appreciation of 5.4%. In 2018, Moody\u2019s expects standalone home prices will increase 3.2%, and in both 2019 and 2020 rise 2.2%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It will take until 2021 for price growth begin accelerating again, with a 2.5% uptick forecast for that year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The condo market will take a similar path, the report states.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Following a 4.7-per-cent increase this year, prices will move upwards by a more muted 3.2% in 2017 and 2.4% through 2018.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Like on the detached side, growth is projected to be the same in 2019 and 2020, tracking at 1.7% in each year before rising 1.9% in 2021.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One factor that safeguards Canada from a widespread crash that topples the financial system is that the country has different industries that are supportive of economies in different regions across the country, the report suggests.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cAs a result, there may still be individual regions within Canada where housing markets perform poorly in coming years, but the baseline forecast is for no overall national house price correction,\u201d adds Carbacho-Burgos.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moody\u2019s acknowledges the possibility that Canada\u2019s housing market is overheating right now, but says deteriorating affordability and a potential upswing in housing starts leading to a greater supply of homes are supportive of a slowdown rather than a collapse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cSome of the largest house price imbalances are the result of international wealth inflows, rather than excessive risk-taking by mortgage lenders, so there is little systemic financial risk,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2016\/10\/canadian-housing-market-moderation-crash.html\" target=\"_blank\">The Canadian Housing Market is Headed for \u201cModeration,\u201d Not a Crash<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Red flags, a possible Vancouver correction and the Ontario and BC housing markets potential to become economic drags: forward-looking narratives for the Canadian housing market haven\u2019t been glowing accounts of &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/10\/the-canadian-housing-market-is-headed-for-moderation-not-a-crash\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Canadian Housing Market is Headed for \u201cModeration,\u201d Not a Crash &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/10\/the-canadian-housing-market-is-headed-for-moderation-not-a-crash\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The Canadian Housing Market is Headed for \u201cModeration,\u201d Not a Crash &#8226; 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