{"id":3968,"date":"2016-11-14T11:11:35","date_gmt":"2016-11-14T19:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=3968"},"modified":"2016-11-11T09:49:58","modified_gmt":"2016-11-11T17:49:58","slug":"expect-canadian-home-sales-to-fall-in-2017-while-prices-push-further-upwards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/11\/expect-canadian-home-sales-to-fall-in-2017-while-prices-push-further-upwards\/","title":{"rendered":"Expect Canadian Home Sales to Fall in 2017 While Prices Push Further Upwards"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Royal Bank of Canada makes no bones about it: accurate real estate predictions don\u2019t come easily \u2014 even for experts, and especially these days.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cForecasting Canada\u2019s housing market is particularly difficult at this juncture given the central role that policy is playing and likely to continue to play in the period ahead,\u201d writes Robert Hogue, a senior economist at RBC, in a report this week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, Canada\u2019s largest bank isn\u2019t letting that hold it back from taking another stab at it, one that calls for a national sales downturn but higher prices still.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a downwardly revised Canadian housing market forecast, RBC is now predicting home sales will decline 11.5% in 2017 after rising 4.4% this year. In terms of the total number of units changing hands, that works out to 527,900 this year and 467,100 the next.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">All provinces will experience declines, with BC leading the way with a projected 23.8% year-over-year decline on the horizon for 2017. Manitoba, on the other hand, will see the smallest change, an anticipated 2.7% hit on activity next year. Ontario, home to the country\u2019s hottest major housing market, Toronto, falls somewhere in between, with a sales drop of 10.6% expected.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOverstretched affordability conditions in Canada\u2019s most expensive markets are poised to restrain homebuyer demand \u2014 especially if longer-term interest rates rise as we expect \u2014 however, we see recent policy action as the bigger factor at play,\u201d Hogue explains.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BC\u2019s 15% sales tax applied to non-resident buyers of residential properties anywhere in Metro Vancouver starting August 2nd is a contributing factor \u2014 one of several \u2014 in the national decline.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cImportantly, we expect rule changes at the federal level will have a dampening effect on home buying activity across all provinces, not just for Canada\u2019s hot markets,\u201d he states.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hogue is referring specifically mortgage-related regulatory measures Finance Minister Bill Morneau announced early last month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The first, which took effect October 17th, means would-be homebuyers putting down less than 20% must qualify at a higher rate when choosing a fixed-rate mortgage of five years or more. Another measure, set to take effect November 30th, will see more stringent mortgage portfolio insurance standards.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Together, RBC estimates these changes may impact about 20% of all home sales in Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">No crash is in the cards, however, according to Hogue. \u201cWhile we downgraded our housing market outlook, we remain of the view that our base case scenario would qualify as a soft landing posing little threat to the stability of the market, even in British Columbia,\u201d he notes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While sales cool, the aggregate price of a Canadian home will continue to climb, albeit at a slackening rate of 1.6%, down from an expected 9.5% this year. Or, in dollars, $441,800 this year compared to $448,900 in 2017.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ontario, with a projected 2017 aggregate home price of $494,400, representing a year-over-year increase of 3%, is poised for the greatest gain, says RBC. If the forecast holds true, the aggregate home price in BC will reach $748,700 next year, up 1.0 per cent year-over-year, the second biggest increase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe expect that weakening resale activity will erode sellers\u2019 pricing power,\u201d says Hogue in the report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nevertheless, RBC only expects three provinces to see outright price drops : Newfoundland and Labrador, Alberta and Saskatchewan. RBC has Newfoundland and Labrador slotted for the most substantial depreciation, with an aggregate price of $264,000, a 5.2% year-over-year decline, expected.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOur base case scenario assumes no further policy action,\u201d writes Hogue. \u201cWe will continue to monitor housing market developments closely and stand ready to revise our outlook as necessary,\u201d he concludes.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2016\/11\/expect-canadian-home-sales-fall-2017.html\" target=\"_blank\">Expect Canadian Home Sales to Fall in 2017 While Prices Push Further Upwards<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Royal Bank of Canada makes no bones about it: accurate real estate predictions don\u2019t come easily \u2014 even for experts, and especially these days. \u201cForecasting Canada\u2019s housing market is &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2016\/11\/expect-canadian-home-sales-to-fall-in-2017-while-prices-push-further-upwards\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expect Canadian Home Sales to Fall in 2017 While Prices Push Further Upwards &#8226; 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