{"id":5584,"date":"2017-04-20T10:10:51","date_gmt":"2017-04-20T17:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=5584"},"modified":"2017-04-18T17:38:22","modified_gmt":"2017-04-19T00:38:22","slug":"should-we-actually-fret-about-a-canadian-housing-correction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/04\/should-we-actually-fret-about-a-canadian-housing-correction\/","title":{"rendered":"Should We Actually Fret About A Canadian Housing Correction?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There hasn\u2019t been any shortage of incendiary headlines lately suggesting the Canadian housing market is teetering toward the brink.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cPop Canada\u2019s housing bubble, before it pops the economy,\u201d the Globe and Mail\u2019s editorial board recommended this past weekend. \u201cHow Canada\u2019s real estate market went completely insane,\u201d reads a recent explainer care of Canadian Business.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A recent CIBC report adopts a brighter tone suggesting a housing market downturn might not be anything to \u201cfear\u201d after all \u2014 it comes down to the specific circumstances.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe economy-wide consequences of a house price correction would largely depend on what triggered it in the first place,\u201d write CIBC economists Avery Shenfeld, Andrew Grantham and Nick Exarhos.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If current historically low interest rates \u2014 which have kept homeownership within reach for some households even as house prices soar \u2014 began a fast ascent, property values would almost certainly tumble, the authors acknowledge.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But the CIBC economists say if the Bank of Canada hiked its overnight rate, which influences variable mortgage rates, it would ride on the shoulders of a strengthening economy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThere\u2019s a lot of room for better exports and business capital spending to pick up the slack,\u201d the economists note.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The central bank has held rates steady amid uncertainty and sluggish economic growth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The CIBC report also suggests a devastating US-style housing crash doesn\u2019t appear to be on the horizon for Canada.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Whereas mortgage arrears began rising prior to a collapse in home prices stateside, the 90-day mortgage delinquency rate north of the border has remained level in recent years (chart below).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/chart-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-5587\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/chart-1-300x258.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"477\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/chart-1-300x258.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/chart-1-768x662.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/chart-1.jpg 823w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 477px) 100vw, 477px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Similarly, the share of Canada\u2019s six biggest banks\u2019 income assets that is made up of uninsured mortgages has been consistent since the end of 2012, according to CIBC research.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOne of the triggers for the US housing crisis, poor mortgage origination standards, looks to be less of an issue here,\u201d Shenfeld, Grantham and Exarhos write.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThat owes largely to tighter control over the vast majority of mortgages that come from regulated institutions,\u201d they argue.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The report also examines a scenario in which home prices either plunge as confidence in residential real estate dries up or future policy measures are too effective in cooling the housing market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cMajor retreats are actually hard to find in Canada or abroad in the absence of at least some interest rate pressure or a recession as a trigger,\u201d the report states.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 2012, Vancouver home prices plummeted by 15% annually, but BC\u2019s economy chugged along. The massive drop only set home prices back roughly to where they were at the beginning of 2010.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWhile there was some slowing in retail sales, GDP growth was little changed compared with the year earlier,\u201d the economists say, nodding to another chart (below).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/housing-correction.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-5588\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/housing-correction-300x258.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"477\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/housing-correction-300x258.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/housing-correction-768x661.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/housing-correction.jpg 823w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 477px) 100vw, 477px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Greater Toronto Area, which saw the average price for homes of all types catapult 33.2% on a year-over-year basis in March, a drop back to levels seen two years ago would be larger, percentage-wise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cBut [the BC example] does suggest\u2026 the easy-come-easy-go nature of the wealth swing reduces any spillovers into the broader economy,\u201d add the CIBC economists.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIn a larger, more sustained correction, younger Canadians who have yet to become homeowners would be smiling, investors in rental property might be counting up their losses, and the homeowners would have shed some of their on-paper net worth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2017\/04\/should-we-fret-canadian-housing-correction.html\" target=\"_blank\">Should We Actually Fret About A Canadian Housing Correction?<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There hasn\u2019t been any shortage of incendiary headlines lately suggesting the Canadian housing market is teetering toward the brink. \u201cPop Canada\u2019s housing bubble, before it pops the economy,\u201d the Globe &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/04\/should-we-actually-fret-about-a-canadian-housing-correction\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Should We Actually Fret About A Canadian Housing Correction? 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