{"id":5697,"date":"2017-05-02T11:11:11","date_gmt":"2017-05-02T18:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=5697"},"modified":"2017-04-28T13:10:40","modified_gmt":"2017-04-28T20:10:40","slug":"how-canadas-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/05\/how-canadas-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years\/","title":{"rendered":"How Canada&#8217;s Housing Market Risks Evolved in 2 Years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It was different back then.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In April 2015, Canada\u2019s national housing agency gave the green flag to Vancouver and Victoria\u2019s real estate markets. Meantime, it was only cautioning that researchers noticed \u201cmoderate\u201d signs of troublesome conditions in Toronto. Regina and Winnipeg were facing the strongest risks \u2014 how times have changed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Flash forward to the second quarter of this year, and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is seeing red in three more markets than before.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In its latest quarterly Housing Market Assessment report, CMHC found \u201cstrong evidence of problematic conditions\u201d in the Toronto, Hamilton, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Vancouver and Victoria census metro areas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Using its colour-coded system, it denotes this elevated level of risk with red. Yellow means the evidence is \u201cmoderate.\u201d Green signifies it\u2019s \u201cweak.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At BuzzBuzzNews\u2019 request, CMHC has updated a chart comparing its regular overall assessments of major Canadian housing markets dating back to 2015, when it adopted its current format for the regular report.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The chart suggests how risks over the past two years have evolved in Canada\u2019s housing market, with the worst conditions no longer seen only in the prairies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/chart-shows-how-Canada\u2019s-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-5700\" src=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/chart-shows-how-Canada\u2019s-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years-300x129.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"558\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/chart-shows-how-Canada\u2019s-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years-300x129.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/chart-shows-how-Canada\u2019s-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years-768x329.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/chart-shows-how-Canada\u2019s-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years.jpg 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The overall assessment for each of the 15 major census metro area markets analyzed is based on their performance in four categories: overheating, price acceleration, overvaluation and overbuilding.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Toronto\u2019s main area of concern right now is overvaluation, CMHC\u2019s red evaluation suggests. There is also moderate evidence problems with overheating and price gains. Contrary to a recent RBC report, there\u2019s weak evidence, if any, of overbuilding.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CMHC\u2019s analysis of nearby Hamilton, where price gains from Toronto are spilling over as would-be GTA buyers descend on the city in search of cheaper housing options, mirrors its findings in Ontario\u2019s capital.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Two years earlier, overvaluation was CMHC\u2019s primary concern for the Toronto market, and even then evidence was \u201cmoderate.\u201d Hamilton wasn\u2019t on the agency\u2019s radar; it only began tracking the market in August 2015.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Saskatoon, meantime, showed strong signs of an overbuilding problem and moderate overvaluation, earning it an overall assessment in the red, a far cry from its \u201clow risk\u201d status of April 2015.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vancouver and Victoria rounded out the red markets, with CMHC classifying both as having strong symptoms of overvaluation and moderate signs of prices that are rising too quickly. While Vancouver, which has seen home price growth substantially reduced about nine months after BC introduced a foreign-buyer tax for the metro area, wasn\u2019t flagged for overheating, Victoria received a yellow evaluation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cRegionally, eastern markets show weak evidence of overvaluation while this factor is stronger in western centres and markets in southern Ontario where economic fundamentals have not kept pace with recent price growth,\u201d writes Bob Dugan, CMHC\u2019s chief economist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In April 2015, it was clear sailing for the Vancouver market. CMHC dubbed it \u201clow risk,\u201d with commentary that today sounds like it\u2019s describing some other city.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cDespite high Vancouver home prices, demand for housing across the price spectrum is supported by a growing population and growth in personal disposable income,\u201d the older CMHC report reads. \u201cFirst-time home buyers focus on lower-priced options in the suburban locales.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2017\/04\/how-canadas-housing-market-risks-evolved.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">This Chart Shows How Canada&#8217;s Housing Market Risks Evolved in 2 Years<\/a> by Josh Sherman | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It was different back then. In April 2015, Canada\u2019s national housing agency gave the green flag to Vancouver and Victoria\u2019s real estate markets. Meantime, it was only cautioning that researchers &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/05\/how-canadas-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How Canada&#039;s Housing Market Risks Evolved in 2 Years &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/05\/how-canadas-housing-market-risks-evolved-in-2-years\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"How Canada&#039;s Housing Market Risks Evolved in 2 Years &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"It was different back then. 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