{"id":7771,"date":"2017-12-26T11:11:29","date_gmt":"2017-12-26T19:11:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=7771"},"modified":"2017-12-15T09:55:33","modified_gmt":"2017-12-15T17:55:33","slug":"pull-forward-of-activity-before-new-mortgage-rules-come-into-effect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/12\/pull-forward-of-activity-before-new-mortgage-rules-come-into-effect\/","title":{"rendered":"Pull-Forward of Activity Before New Mortgage Rules Come Into Effect"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">November saw Canadian home sales jump 3.9%, in what experts are calling a pull-forward of activity, before new mortgage rules come into effect in the new year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cSome of the gain may reflect some pull-forward of sales activity in an attempt to beat the implementation of the updated B20 guidelines in January 2018,\u201d reads a recent note from TD senior economist Michael Dolega.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The updated guidelines, which come into effect on January 1, will require all uninsured mortgage borrowers to qualify against the Bank of Canada\u2019s five-year benchmark rate, or at their contract rate plus an additional 2%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cNote that the November gain was the second best monthly increase of the year, and could reflect some activity getting pulled forward ahead of the new [mortgage [rules],\u201d writes BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Those same guidelines are likely to cool the market in the new year, as fewer buyers are able to qualify for a mortgage. Still, Dolega notes that a healthy economy should mean that the effects aren\u2019t too drastic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TD is forecasting a 2017 annual GDP growth of 3.0%, with an above-trend growth of 2.4% in 2018.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cOverall, we anticipate a continuation of the soft-landing narrative that has so far characterized dynamics in Canada\u2019s housing market,\u201d writes Dolega. \u201cHigher mortgages will be a significant headwind on Canadian housing activity in 2018. However, still-solid employment and income growth should cushion the blow.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kavcic writes that, while markets like Toronto still have strong supply-demand fundamentals that could push sales and prices higher, the new guidelines should cool the market in 2018.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cThe adjustment in the Toronto market is ongoing, but strong underlying fundamentals should prove supportive next year once the remaining froth gets worked off,\u201d he writes. \u201cIn all likelihood, the coming rules changes should keep the froth from returning.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2017\/12\/boost-november-home-sales-mean-canadas-real-estate-market-experts-weigh.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Experts Weigh in What Does A Boost in November Home Sales Mean for Canada&#8217;s Real Estate Market?<\/a> by Sarah Niedoba | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November saw Canadian home sales jump 3.9%, in what experts are calling a pull-forward of activity, before new mortgage rules come into effect in the new year. \u201cSome of the &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/12\/pull-forward-of-activity-before-new-mortgage-rules-come-into-effect\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pull-Forward of Activity Before New Mortgage Rules Come Into Effect &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2017\/12\/pull-forward-of-activity-before-new-mortgage-rules-come-into-effect\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Pull-Forward of Activity Before New Mortgage Rules Come Into Effect &#8226; 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