{"id":7815,"date":"2018-01-09T10:10:53","date_gmt":"2018-01-09T18:10:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=7815"},"modified":"2017-12-20T16:24:09","modified_gmt":"2017-12-21T00:24:09","slug":"analysts-are-predicting-a-cooler-housing-market-in-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/01\/analysts-are-predicting-a-cooler-housing-market-in-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts are Predicting A Cooler Housing Market in 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Analysts are predicting a cooler housing market in 2018, with falling prices in the first few months of the year. But what is it that will pull prices downwards?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It\u2019s impending mortgage rule changes that are to blame, according to a recent Reuters poll of Canadian analysts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Beginning January 1, a new mortgage stress test will require all uninsured mortgage borrowers to qualify against the Bank of Canada\u2019s five-year benchmark rate, or at their contract rate plus an additional 2%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe can expect residential investment to slow down next year after the new restrictive guidelines come into effect,\u201d reads a recent report from Desjardins on the effects of the test.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Analysts in Reuters poll agree, predicting that home prices will grow by 1.9% in 2018, a serious decrease from 2017\u2019s 8.5% gain.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Toronto prices are predicted to grow by only 2% in 2018, followed by 3% in 2019, following record high growth in the first quarter of 2017, including a 30% leap in the average sales price in March.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, Vancouver could see growth of 6 per cent in 2018, before cooling to 4.6% the following year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Analysts also singled out higher interest rates as a major factor in a cooling national housing market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Bank of Canada has hiked the overnight rate 50 basis points this year, up from a historically low 0.5%. Many economists predict that it will continue to raise rates over the course of 2018.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But though analysts seem confident that prices will come down in 2018, not everyone\u2019s so sure. According to Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper, higher interest rates and a stricter stress test won\u2019t be able to keep the market cool for long.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cAttempting to use public policy to steer property prices in huge, rapidly growing cities like Toronto and Vancouver is like a tugboat trying to turn an ocean liner,\u201d he writes. \u201cConsistent, measured policy can have a positive impact. Just don\u2019t try to turn the market on a dime or you risk sinking the ship.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It\u2019s a sentiment shared by CIBC senior economist Benjamin Tal. \u201cWithout dealing with the real fundamental issues of [markets like] the GTA, these policy changes are able to provide only temporary relief,\u201d Tal told BuzzBuzzNews.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That\u2019s because, according to Tal, the GTA and the Greater Vancouver Area are both facing a significant lack of supply.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cIf you look at the long term trajectory, and where prices will be, say, 10 years from now, I think they will be increasingly more and more unaffordable to the average Canadian,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2017\/12\/analysts-affect-home-prices-2018.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">This is What Analysts Think Will Affect Home Prices in 2018<\/a> by Sarah Niedoba | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysts are predicting a cooler housing market in 2018, with falling prices in the first few months of the year. But what is it that will pull prices downwards? It\u2019s &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/01\/analysts-are-predicting-a-cooler-housing-market-in-2018\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analysts are Predicting A Cooler Housing Market in 2018 &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/01\/analysts-are-predicting-a-cooler-housing-market-in-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Analysts are Predicting A Cooler Housing Market in 2018 &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Analysts are predicting a cooler housing market in 2018, with falling prices in the first few months of the year. 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