{"id":8153,"date":"2018-02-08T10:10:38","date_gmt":"2018-02-08T18:10:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=8153"},"modified":"2018-02-04T12:05:08","modified_gmt":"2018-02-04T20:05:08","slug":"housing-momentum-slowing-but-more-supply-still-needed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/02\/housing-momentum-slowing-but-more-supply-still-needed\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Momentum Slowing but More Supply Still Needed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Slowing Momentum<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Affordability was the elephant in the room at the annual Urban Development Institute (UDI) forecast luncheon on January 18. While few panellists mentioned it by name, its shadow fell across the conversation moderator Jon Stovell of Reliance Properties Ltd. had with Ward McAllister of Ledingham McAllister, Todd Yuen of Beedie Industrial and Kevin Layden of Wesbild Holdings Ltd.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Layden was the most blunt in his forecast for real estate in 2018.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe\u2019re running out of momentum,\u201d he said. \u201cEvery aspect, whether it\u2019s interest rates or demand-side measures, is going to slow us down. I think it\u2019s just a question of time.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">McAllister echoed Layden\u2019s comments, stealing a phrase from Intracorp Projects Ltd. president and CEO Don Fors-gren to declare himself \u201cnervously optimistic.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe\u2019ve been in a very, very good cycle,\u201d he said. \u201cWe should technically be at the end of that cycle, but it really looks like with all the economic and global factors that we\u2019re on for another good ride for a number of years, but there are those five little things that we all talked about that could screw this market up big time, and I hope they don\u2019t happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Those include government intervention in the market, inconclusive municipal election results this fall (approximately 55% of luncheon attendees felt Vancouver will have a hung council), geopolitical risk, interest rate hikes and public opposition to projects.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Crafting Affordability<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Affordability is the \u00e9minence grise behind most risk factors facing the real estate market \u2013 fuelling public pushback to development plans, shaping government policies and driving election promises.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI\u2019ve never seen so many issues all at once in the very near term. We\u2019re going to know very quickly whether we\u2019re going to have another great market year or not,\u201d McAllister told UDI.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But if government intervention is a risk factor, it also has the potential to address affordability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">UDI maintains that more housing means more affordable housing, and Premier John Horgan wants to see more housing \u2013 but government isn\u2019t in the development business.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cHow do we increase supply?\u201d Horgan asked UDI members last November. \u201cThat\u2019s up to you. You have the ability, you have the resources, you have the expertise to make that happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Government at all levels needs to be responsive, however.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cWe all know that the housing affordability crisis didn\u2019t arrive yesterday; it didn\u2019t arrive five years ago. It\u2019s been building for some considerable period of time,\u201d Horgan said. \u201cIt is our commitment to work with you hand in hand so you can deliver on what you do best and we can deliver on what we committed to, and that\u2019s thousands of homes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This makes more sense to McAllister than efforts to dampen demand, which does nothing to make B.C. the world-class destination it aspires to be. (Layden warned against the risk of rearguard policies restricting foreign investment, Uber and Airbnb not only dampening demand but driving it elsewhere.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cI don\u2019t think we have anything to worry about in this economy about people wanting to come here. I think as long as they\u2019re allowed they\u2019re going to come in droves,\u201d McAllister said. \u201cHow do we deal with it? Increased supply &#8230;.. We do not want to moderate and put pressure on demand.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This being said, an audience survey indicated that the majority favour some kind of tax measure to ensure the housing that\u2019s built benefits locals, with a smaller proportion expecting some kind of pre-sale registry.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Taxes, however, might just change who\u2019s buying the homes, not the price they\u2019re selling for.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A year ago, Anthem Properties Group CEO Eric Carlson described the effect of the foreign-buyer tax implemented in 2016 as \u201cmice nuts.\u201d Benchmark pricing in Metro Vancouver has increased 13% since the tax to more than $1 million.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">McAllister said if the province is serious about fulfilling its ambitious promise of 114,000 affordable homes over the next 10 years, it has to give BC Housing the needed cash in its upcoming budget. \u2022<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/biv.com\/article\/2018\/01\/housing-momentum-slowing-more-supply-still-needed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Housing Momentum Slowing but More Supply Still Needed<\/a> by Peter Mitham | Business in Vancouver<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Slowing Momentum Affordability was the elephant in the room at the annual Urban Development Institute (UDI) forecast luncheon on January 18. While few panellists mentioned it by name, its shadow &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/02\/housing-momentum-slowing-but-more-supply-still-needed\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Housing Momentum Slowing but More Supply Still Needed &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/02\/housing-momentum-slowing-but-more-supply-still-needed\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Housing Momentum Slowing but More Supply Still Needed &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Slowing Momentum Affordability was the elephant in the room at the annual Urban Development Institute (UDI) forecast luncheon on January 18. 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