{"id":8333,"date":"2018-02-21T09:21:40","date_gmt":"2018-02-21T17:21:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=8333"},"modified":"2018-02-21T09:21:40","modified_gmt":"2018-02-21T17:21:40","slug":"whats-in-store-for-canadas-housing-market-this-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/02\/whats-in-store-for-canadas-housing-market-this-month\/","title":{"rendered":"What’s In Store for Canada’s Housing Market This Month?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As many industry watchers had predicted, January was a slow month for the Canadian housing market, with national sales dropping 14.5% month-over-month. It\u2019s too early to say for certain what the next few months will bring, but according to one bank, an uptick in activity won\u2019t be arriving anytime soon.<\/p>\n

\u201cLooking ahead, we expect near-term volatility to persist as buyers react to the fallout from both the new [mortgage rules] and rising mortgage rates,\u201d writes TD senior economist Fotios Raptis, in a recent note.<\/p>\n

According to Raptis, last month\u2019s drop in sales was caused by a higher interest rate environment, and a new mortgage stress for uninsured buyers that came into effect on January 1. He writes that the impact of these changes is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as the market continues to adjust.<\/p>\n

But, it\u2019s also worth noting that the drastic drop in January sales was thanks, in part, to buyers rushing into the market in December, to avoid the new mortgage rules.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough it\u2019s still too early to accurately assess what impact the new [mortgage] guideline has had on housing markets, the weak January data adds credence to the view that 2017 year-end sales strength was likely due to some pulling forward, as buyers rushed to mortgage up before the new year,\u201d writes Raptis.<\/p>\n

Raptis\u2019 forecast for the second-half of 2018 is a bit rosier. He predicts that rising interest rates will continue to keep things relatively cool, but that most markets should become relatively balanced.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter stabilizing mid-year, home sales and prices are likely to remain weighed down by rising interest rates,\u201d he writes. \u201cBut, with markets largely in balanced territory, prices should remain well supported.\u201d<\/p>\n

As for when the Bank of Canada will choose to hike the overnight rate \u2014 which will in turn cause lenders to raise mortgage rates \u2014 next, Raptis says there\u2019s still plenty of time.<\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, the [January sales data] does little to affect our view of the Bank of Canada,\u201d writes Raptis. \u201cThe impacts of both the new [mortgage stress test] and higher mortgage rates have largely been included in its economic forecasts\u2026With households more sensitive than ever to rising interest rates, the Bank will likely wait to see inflationary pressures build further before concluding that it\u2019s safe to raise rates again likely this July.\u201d<\/p>\n

What’s In Store for Canada’s Housing Market This Month? More Volatility<\/a> by Sarah Niedoba | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As many industry watchers had predicted, January was a slow month for the Canadian housing market, with national sales dropping 14.5% month-over-month. 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