{"id":88,"date":"2015-11-10T08:55:28","date_gmt":"2015-11-10T16:55:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=88"},"modified":"2015-11-10T11:05:53","modified_gmt":"2015-11-10T19:05:53","slug":"cmhc-demand-not-buyer-origin-key-to-vancouver-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2015\/11\/cmhc-demand-not-buyer-origin-key-to-vancouver-market\/","title":{"rendered":"CMHC : Demand, Not Buyer Origin, Key to Vancouver Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Don\u2019t Mention It<\/strong><br \/>\nVancouver house prices are on track to post a 10.4% increase this year over last, but the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) attributes the gain to the kinds of homes changing hands, not the participants in the market.<br \/>\n\u201cOne of the key things that\u2019s been going on in Vancouver is there\u2019s been compositional effects driving house prices higher,\u201d remarked CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan during a media call at the end of October.<br \/>\nBut so far as drivers of those sales, and the higher prices, the CMHC maintained ignorance last week.<br \/>\n\u201cI don\u2019t have data \u2026 that tells me what share of those single homes being sold are being purchased by foreign investors, and so that\u2019s sort of a data gap that has to be solved,\u201d Dugan told media. \u201cCMHC is trying, in partnership with other people, to see if there are other things we can do to get more information, but for now that is a data gap that we just have to acknowledge exists.\u201d<br \/>\nCMHC senior market analyst Robyn Adamache was even more consoling to the market.<br \/>\n\u201cIt doesn\u2019t have a huge impact on the market,\u201d she told attendees at the CMHC\u2019s annual housing outlook conference last week in Vancouver. \u201cIt\u2019s safe to assume at this point that the foreign investor presence is relatively limited, particularly when you look at a big-picture aggregate level. There are neighbourhoods that are probably more affected, there are certain condo buildings that are more affected by foreign ownership, but overall \u2013 [they\u2019re] not a huge impact on the housing market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Price Check<\/strong><br \/>\nWhat is driving prices higher, according to the CMHC, is a mix of low interest rates, steady job growth and household formation through in-migration.<br \/>\nThe CMHC isn\u2019t expecting interest rates to rise before late 2016, and possibly even early 2017. A solid foundation for the market has helped push inventories of unsold condos down to just an eight-month supply, less than half what it was a year ago and a fifth of what it was in the dark days of 2009.<br \/>\nPrices have increased in turn, fuelling affordability concerns.<br \/>\n\u201cPrice is more the story,\u201d said Dugan. \u201cThe various fundamental factors are supporting house prices, but not fully because house price growth has been so strong it\u2019s run a little bit ahead of what fundamentals can support.\u201d<br \/>\nHowever, the CMHC isn\u2019t overly concerned; as Adamache said in her review of the Vancouver market at last week\u2019s housing outlook conference: \u201cHigh prices do not mean overvaluation.\u201d<br \/>\nBut, as in the past, strong market activity in Vancouver (and Toronto) is skewing local and national house price averages \u2013 something CMHC regional analyst Carol Frketich acknowledged in qualifying her forecast of a significant cooling trend in price growth over the next two years.<br \/>\nThe CMHC expects a BC residence to cost an average of $636,300 in 2016, while in Vancouver the price will average $914,100. \u2022<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biv.com\/article\/2015\/11\/demand-not-buyer-origin-key-vancouver-market-cmhc-\/\" target=\"_blank\">CMHC : Demand, Not Buyer Origin, Key to Vancouver Market<\/a> by Peter Mitham | Business in Vancouver<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don\u2019t Mention It Vancouver house prices are on track to post a 10.4% increase this year over last, but the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) attributes the gain to &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2015\/11\/cmhc-demand-not-buyer-origin-key-to-vancouver-market\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CMHC : Demand, Not Buyer Origin, Key to Vancouver Market &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2015\/11\/cmhc-demand-not-buyer-origin-key-to-vancouver-market\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"CMHC : Demand, Not Buyer Origin, Key to Vancouver Market &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Don\u2019t Mention It Vancouver house prices are on track to post a 10.4% increase this year over last, but the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. 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