{"id":9102,"date":"2018-05-20T11:11:39","date_gmt":"2018-05-20T18:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/?p=9102"},"modified":"2018-05-14T09:52:44","modified_gmt":"2018-05-14T16:52:44","slug":"when-will-the-canadian-housing-market-start-to-warm-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/05\/when-will-the-canadian-housing-market-start-to-warm-up\/","title":{"rendered":"When will The Canadian Housing Market Start to Warm Up?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Housing activity has been lagging across Canada ever since January, causing many industry watchers to wonder when will things start to heat up again.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The answer largely depends on when the market will adjust to the effects of a new mortgage stress test, which came into effect on January 1 and sent sales plummeting. Some economists are predicting that May could be the month that the market gets back on its feet, while others are saying it\u2019s still too soon to tell.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To get a better sense of where things are midway into the second quarter of the year, BuzzBuzzNews has rounded up the latest commentary from industry experts to keep you in the know.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The market won\u2019t be boosting the economy anytime soon.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When home sales plummeted 14.5% in January, the Canadian economy dropped with it. But according to BMO chief economist Douglas Porter, the housing market won\u2019t hurt Canada\u2019s economy in 2018 \u2014 it just won\u2019t help it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201c[As Canadian trade continues to struggle, the prior Canadian growth workhorse \u2014 housing \u2014 is showing further signs of fatigue,\u201d writes Porter, in a recent note.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">He writes that, despite their different dynamics, sales in Calgary, Vancouver and Toronto all reported a 20% year-over-year drop in sales in April. \u201cWith the slide in sales, we look for residential activity &#8230;.. to make no contribution at all [to the economy] in 2018,\u201d he concludes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The spring ramp-up may have to wait.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Traditionally, home sales tend to peak in April (just look at last year\u2019s record activity for an example). But this year, sales continued to fall year-over-year in almost every major Canadian housing market. According to RBC economist Robert Hogue, it could be a sign that the annual sales ramp-up has been pushed back.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hogue says sellers might be delaying listing their properties amidst uncertainty about the state of the market. GTA home listings were down 24.6% year-over-year in April.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cTypically, you see home resale activity pick up in March and peak during the April-May period,\u201d Hogue told BuzzBuzzNews. \u201cWe would normally expect to see some kind of rebound in sales, but we don\u2019t know yet how much the stress test is pushing back activity, or to what extent this is a permanent effect.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>But some markets are already heating up.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite falling activity in most markets last quarter, five Ontario markets saw a surge in demand which moved prices upwards.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Desjardins\u2019 housing affordability index, affordability deteriorated in Ottawa (-0.7%), Kingston (-6.4%), Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (-7.9%), Windsor (-2.7%), and Thunder Bay (-5.9%) last quarter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many are markets that industry watchers had predicted would outperform this spring, as homebuyers sought out more affordable alternatives to expensive markets like Toronto.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cCanadian housing markets are likely to remain under-pressure from the recent [new mortgage rules], higher mortgage rates, and in some cases provincial regulation,\u201d writes TD senior economist Michael Dolega, in a recent note. \u201cHowever, lower-priced markets where affordability is good should generally outperform in the current environment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/news.buzzbuzzhome.com\/2018\/05\/will-canadian-housing-market-start-warm-heres-industry-experts-say.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">When will The Canadian Housing Market Start to Warm Up?<\/a> by Sarah Niedoba | Buzz Buzz Home<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Housing activity has been lagging across Canada ever since January, causing many industry watchers to wonder when will things start to heat up again. The answer largely depends on when &hellip; [<a href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/05\/when-will-the-canadian-housing-market-start-to-warm-up\/\">read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-updates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>When will The Canadian Housing Market Start to Warm Up? &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.roryc.ca\/blog\/2018\/05\/when-will-the-canadian-housing-market-start-to-warm-up\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"When will The Canadian Housing Market Start to Warm Up? &#8226; Rory C Real Estate | Oakwyn Realty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Housing activity has been lagging across Canada ever since January, causing many industry watchers to wonder when will things start to heat up again. 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