Despite numerous predictions to the contrary, there has been no “soft landing” in Canada’s housing market. Rather, “runaway” price growth in Vancouver and Toronto have dominated the discussion, and will continue to do so, according to a regional housing report from TD Economics. But TD is still betting that the soft landing will occur in both Toronto and Vancouver—if a certain number of conditions are met, including rising government bond yields, higher mortgage interest rates and new mortgage lending regulations coming into effect next year. The paths taken by the two cities will be different, however. TD predicts that home prices in Vancouver will drop by 10 per cent by mid-2017, while Toronto’s hot market will continue to accelerate in the near term.

Toronto’s market is different from Vancouver’s in three key ways, says the TD report. In the first place, Toronto has not addressed its supply problem. Supply of resale listings is stuck at seven-year lows, resulting in “buyer’s gridlock,” the situation where high prices on upper-end homes make it difficult for move-up buyers to find something they can afford. As for new supply, it is hampered by “lengthy permitting processes and infrastructure deficiencies,” making the supply response a relatively slow one. In fact, the report is highly critical of policymakers in Toronto where, it says, the housing supply pipeline has “grossly under paced” the demand side of the equation.

A second factor that TD speculates could play out in Toronto is the foreign buyer impact. With the foreign buyer tax dampening interest in Vancouver, foreign investors could gravitate to Toronto. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest this is already happening. There is also evidence that the effects of such tax moves are “transitory,” with market cooldowns lasting one or two quarters before roaring back.

Thirdly, prices in Toronto have not skyrocketed the way they have in Vancouver, suggesting less room for a near-term correction.

Canada’s two hottest housing markets increasingly appear to be moving in separate directions. The new tax program in Vancouver will put further downward pressure on an already cooling housing market, while boosting transactions in the still red-hot Toronto market. We still expect a sustained, rate-induced soft landing as the most likely outcome in these two markets in 2017-18 timeframe. Still, without a catalyst—which could take the form of a gradual increase in interest rates—there is a strong likelihood that Vancouver’s market could reheat while Toronto’s remains on an unsustainable track over the medium term.

TD predicts that Toronto’s hot market will “cool steadily” as affordability continues to erode, but only if Canadian bond yields rise in the coming quarters. The report acknowledges a “poor record” by economists in anticipating higher interest rates that never came; nevertheless, the bank’s baseline forecast does predict higher rates, and this is where those bond yields come into it.

If bond yields edge up, which TD believes they will because US bonds are expected to, and Canadian bonds will follow them, then that will drive mortgage rates up. The reason for the “unanticipated strength” in housing markets this year is that earlier predictions of higher bond yields “never panned out.” Instead, they went lower, taking mortgage rates with them. But that was then. TD says it continues to bet that a “multi-year, gradual normalization” in bond yields is at hand, and that it will help to keep housing activity in hot markets like Vancouver and Toronto in check.

If, on the other hand, yields fall in the near term and hold through 2017 into 2018, then Vancouver prices will recover more quickly and the rest of Canada will “outperform” relative to TD’s base case. As for Toronto, “unsustainable” home price appreciation in the double-digit range would likely continue.

TD : Sustained Soft Landing for Vancouver, Toronto, If Bond Yields Rise by Josephine Nolan | Condo.ca