The average price of a Canadian home continued to rise annually as supply dwindled and transactions remained historically high in January, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

In CREA’s monthly National Statistics report released today, company chair Cliff Stevenson noted that January was “pretty quiet,” for new listings, with supply numbers unlikely to shift until warmer weather appears.

“The question is will that supply be overwhelmed by demand as it was last spring, or will we start to see the re-emergence of some of the many would-be sellers who have been hunkered down for the last two years?” he said in the report.

Here’s what we know about Canada’s January housing market according to the latest from CREA.

Home sales inched up slightly from December

Between December 2021 and January, the number of homes that traded hands over MLS grew by one per cent.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in January was 10.7% less than the monthly record established in January 2021. Like what was mostly the case throughout the second half of 2021, January 2022 still reported the second-highest level for sales for that month.

Within local markets, it was an even split between local communities that reported an increase or decrease in sales last month. Gains made in Calgary, Greater Vancouver and Ottawa during January offset declines in Winnipeg, Montreal, the Fraser Valley and Hamilton-Burlington.

Monthly new home supply reports double-digit drop

Month-to-month, the quantity of newly-listed homes fell ​​11% in January. A pullback in the Greater Toronto Area made up more than half of the national decline, according to CREA.

By the end of the month, there was 1.6 months of inventory on a national basis, a level that ties with December 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded.

As sales nudged up and new inventory declined again, January’s sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 89.4%, up from 78.7% in December. This was the second-highest level on record and just slightly below the record 90.2% established last January. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%.

Based on this ratio, 85 per cent of local markets were categorized as seller’s markets in January, while the remaining 15% were in balanced market territory.

Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, explained in the report that the market’s ideal situation between now and the summer would be if a large portion of sellers emerged for the spring market.

“If that were to occur, similar to 2021, we’d likely see a massive number of sales take place which would get a lot of frustrated buyers into homeownership, and we’d likely see some cooling off on the price growth side if those offers are spread across more listings,” explained Cathcart. “Those are all things this market needs. It really comes down to how many properties come up for sale in the months ahead.”

Average home price rises more than 20% from 2021

As market conditions stay persistently tight, the Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was up by a record 2.9% from December to January, similar to the gains reported in the last three months. The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS HPI climbed 28% yearly in January.

According to CREA, the MLS HPI provides the best way to measure price trends as averages can be distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity between each month.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was a record $748,450 in January, up 21% from January 2021. When excluding Greater Vancouver and the GTA from this calculation, the national average price for last month falls approximately $160,000 to $588,450.

Annual price growth recorded in multiple communities

When analyzing markets across the country, several cities reported price increases.

Yearly price growth is “in line,” with the national figure at 28 per cent in British Columbia, but lower in Vancouver and higher in other areas of the province.

Alberta and Saskatchewan experienced annual price growth in the mid-to-high single-digit range, while Manitoba saw gains of 13% annually.

Price increases in Ontario stayed above 30% last month as the GTA caught up with “the pace of provincial gains.” Prices rose between 25% and 40% yearly throughout the rest of the province. Greater Montreal reported growth at a little over 20% year-to-year.

In the Maritimes, New Brunswick has seen prices rise 30% in New Brunswick, 27% in Prince Edward Island and 12% in Newfoundland and Labrador year-to-year.

CREA : National Home Prices Have Never Been Higher, Listings Historically Low by Michelle McNally | Livabl