While the National Composite Home Price Index (HPI) increased by 1% over last month, a few cities, including parts of Southern Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe saw prices decline, according to the latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). National home sales and new listings in about half of local markets also fell in March after a bump in inventory from January to February, according to that same data set.

The Slower Spring Market Presents Opportunity for Some

The latest numbers released by CREA revealed that home sales from coast to coast were down in March by 5.4% from February. Even two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets, Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), have experienced a dip. After a record-setting March 2021, the number of transactions in March of this year came in 16.3% below the previous year, yet still the second-highest level on record for the month of March.

The number of new listings in March declined by 5.5% from February, with major markets including Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary and the GTA all facing dwindling inventory. The not seasonally adjusted sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) remained at a high 72.9%, meaning that two thirds of local markets were sellers’ markets, however, one third has moved into a more balanced condition.

For buyers, a more balanced market can present more opportunities. There is less competition and immediacy to close the deal. According to Lauren Haw, CEO of Zoocasa, “we are starting to see initial signs of more balance entering the market in the suburbs – evidenced by sellers accepting offers anytime instead of scheduled bidding wars, and the comeback of conditions like home inspections, which often get removed in highly competitive situations”.

After a record-low 1.6 months of inventory at the tail end of 2021 to early 2022, the end of March saw a small bump to 1.8 months of inventory nationally. Although the long-term average for this measure is more than five months, this may signal the beginning of a more balanced market and a sigh of relief for buyers across Canada.

Prices Remain High, but Not Everywhere

The HPI average national home price continues to favour sellers at $796,000 in March, an 11.2% increase from the same month last year. This is driven up by Canada’s hottest markets, Greater Vancouver and the GTA. Removing those two regions would cut $163,000 from that national average. The National Home Price Index Benchmark was up 1% in March from the previous month, following a record-high 3.5% increase in February. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price saw a 27.1% increase year-over-year in March. However, some markets have shown declines, especially in the sought after detached house type. In Cambridge ON, single family detached prices dropped -5.4% in March month-over-month. The Kitchener-Waterloo area saw declines of -4.0% and Oakville-Milton of -2.0%. See below for price increases and drops in key markets across Canada.

Although one month does not indicate a trend, the new federal housing policies could lead to changes this spring. CREA’s Senior Economist, Shaun Cathcart explains :

“It was good to see a moderation in the housing markets in March, given so many observers were dreading another year of price gains like we saw in 2021. There were a number of measures announced in the federal budget to help aspiring home buyers, the biggest being getting more housing built. That is the obvious long-term solution to this issue because we all need to live somewhere. In the near-term, the Bank of Canada will do the heavy lifting in the months ahead to slow things down on the price side. Unfortunately, that won’t really do anything to help affordability. Quite the opposite in fact.”

CREA : March Housing Market Cooling Could Be A Good Signal for Home Buyers by Patti Cosgarea | zoocasa