Metro Vancouver home prices are expected to tick up next year, as interest rates hold steady in the first half of 2024, according to a Royal LePage report Thursday.

The real estate company’s 2024 Market Survey Forecast says the average price of all properties in Greater Vancouver is expected to increase by 3% to $1,281,732. That’s significantly lower than detached properties are forecast to go up in Toronto, at 6%, and Montreal, at 5%.

The average price of a detached property in Metro Vancouver is expected to rise 2.5% to $1,778,785, according to the report, while the price of a condo will likely go up by 4% to $795,808. The report does not include a specific forecast for townhouses, although they are included in the overall figure.

“Activity has slowed in recent months allowing some inventory to build, as buyers hold out for a deal or for interest rates to drop, and sellers continue to expect 2021 values for their homes. While this has resulted in a market slowdown, Greater Vancouver could see a brisk spring if interest rates remain steady or dip even a little,” said Randy Ryalls, a managing broker for Royal LePage Sterling Realty, in a statement.

“There is still plenty of demand waiting in the wings, and a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel could easily heat up the market again. Some buyers will rush to transact before the competition gets too tight. Others will wait for multiple rate cuts.”

Canada continues to struggle with a chronic housing supply shortage. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the country needs about 3.5 million additional housing units by 2030 to restore affordability, with the greatest need concentrated in Ontario and BC, according to the report.

Royal LePage says the forecast is based on the prediction that the Bank of Canada will hold its key lending rate unchanged through the first half of 2024, and that the central bank will start to make modest cuts in late summer or fall of next year.
The report also finds home prices are expected to show the greatest increases in the second half of 2024.

Royal LePage : Metro Vancouver Home Prices Forecast to Rise 3% in 2024 by Tiffany Crawford | The Province