After experiencing modest increases since the start of 2024, house prices in Canada’s major urban centers remained stable in June, while market conditions for the housing market continue to indicate balanced conditions between buyers and sellers. It’s true that the beginning of the monetary easing cycle in June encouraged more buyers to take action during the month, but we didn’t see a major wave of new transactions that could have put upward pressure on prices. While record population growth, a shortage of housing supply and upcoming rate cuts by the Bank of Canada will continue to support the Canadian real estate market in the months ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about the magnitude of any recovery in the housing market in the coming months, and its potential impact on prices. Indeed, many uncertainties remain, including the risk of a further deterioration in the labour market, particularly among young people who are facing the worst affordability conditions in decades. It’s true that consumer confidence has been somewhat reinvigorated by the start of overnight rate cuts, but interest rates remain in highly restrictive territory for the time being.

Month-Over-Month

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, remained stable from May to June, following a slight increase of 0.2% the previous month. In June, five of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded increases: Winnipeg (+3.9%), Edmonton (+2.3%), Quebec City (+1.1%), Calgary (+0.1%) and Toronto (+0.1%). Conversely, prices fell in Hamilton (-2.2%), Halifax (-0.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.8%), Vancouver (-0.3%) and Montreal (-0.3%), while prices remained stable in Victoria during the month. On the other hand, price increases were observed in ten of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in June. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Thunder Bay (+3.5%) and Sudbury (+2.7%). Conversely, the biggest declines were in Saint John (-7.1%, following an 8.8% rise the previous month) and Belleville (-2.7%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 0.5% from May to June, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Moreover, increases were observed in eight of the 11 cities making up the index, ranging from +2.7% in Winnipeg to +0.1% in Vancouver. Halifax (-1.8%) and Hamilton (-1.3%) were down, while prices remained stable in Toronto in June.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ rose by 3.6% from June 2023 to June 2024, less than the 5.7% growth recorded the previous month. Increases were observed in all 11 cities making up the composite index in June. Calgary led the way with a 14.6% year-on-year price increase, followed by Edmonton with an 8.7% gain and Quebec City with 6.3% growth. As for lagging markets, prices rose less than average in Victoria (+0.2%), Toronto (+0.8%) and Hamilton (+1.7%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in eighteen of them, Kelowna (-1.7%) and Kitchener (-0.7%) being the exceptions. Among the rising markets, the strongest growth was recorded in Moncton (+13.9%) and Thunder Bay (+13.0%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Remained Stable in June

Prices Remained Stable in June