The composite index rose by 0.6% in November, the fifth consecutive monthly increase and a larger rise than the previous month’s 0.4%. As a result, prices have grown by a cumulative 2.2% since the Bank of Canada’s first rate cut in June, but still remain 1.0% below their April 2022 peak. This acceleration in prices comes at a time when the effects of the monetary easing cycle are beginning to be felt more strongly in the housing market. Indeed, the number of transactions on the resale market continued to rise in November after a jump in October, thanks in particular to a reduction in fixed mortgage interest rates since the summer and the accelerating pace of the central bank’s policy rate cuts in its last two announcements. As a result, conditions on the resale market have tightened further in recent months, with a seller’s market synonymous with upward price support. With the central bank expected to continue easing monetary policy over the coming months to return to neutral territory, and with the extension of amortization to 30 years for insured mortgages in December, the real estate market could maintain its momentum in the coming months, provided the deterioration in the labour market remains limited. However, given affordability challenges and much slower population growth, the pace of house price appreciation should be moderate.

Month-Over-Month

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, rose by 0.6% from October to November, a larger increase than the 0.4% recorded the previous month, and the fifth consecutive monthly increase. As a result, prices have risen by 2.2% since the Bank of Canada’s first cut in June. In November, ten of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded growth: Quebec City (+2.2%), Halifax (+1.7%), Hamilton (+1.5%), Montreal (+1.3%), Vancouver (+1.2%), Victoria (+0.9%), Winnipeg (+0.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.4%), Calgary (+0.3%), and Toronto (+0.1%). Conversely, prices fell in Edmonton (-0.8%). On the other hand, price increases were observed in nine of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in November. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Sherbrooke (+11.0% after a 9.3% fall the previous month), Lethbridge (+4.1%) and Trois-Rivières (+2.9%). Conversely, the biggest declines were in Saint John (-4.7%), Peterborough (-2.2%) and Kitchener (-2.2%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price IndexTM rose by 0.1% from October to November, the first increase in four months.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price IndexTM rose by 2.4% from November 2023 to November 2024, higher than the 1.4% increase recorded the previous month. Increases were observed in nine of the 11 cities making up the composite index in October. Quebec City led the way with year-on-year price increases of 11.8%, followed by Calgary with a 9.8% gain and Montreal with 6.8% growth. As for lagging markets, prices fell in Victoria (-1.3%) and Toronto (-0.3%). As regards the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in ten of them. Among rising markets, the strongest growth was recorded in Trois-Rivières (+18.9%), Kingston (+18.2%) and Sherbrooke (+14.5%). Conversely, the markets with the biggest declines were Kelowna (-4.5%), Kitchener (-2.1%) and Belleville (-1.7%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Accelerates in November