The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 1.3 points to 149.8 in the fourth quarter of 2024, while the six-month moving average rose to 148.8. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, the index was down 0.2 per cent.

Fourth Quarter Highlights

• The economic activity index rose in Q4 by 1.9 points. Growth in this index was broad-based, with inflation-adjusted retail trade (0.7%), wholesale trade (0.5%), and manufacturing sales (0.6%) rising from the previous quarter.

• Office employment (financial, insurance, real estate, and professional services) rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, while manufacturing employment fell by 0.2%. The overall employment component declined by 0.1 points from the previous quarter, contributing negatively to the index.

• The financial component of the index decreased in the final quarter by 0.5 points. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) prices fell by 9.7%, driving the component down. Additionally, interest rate spreads saw modest increases from the previous quarter, indicating slightly more perceived short-term risk in the economy. Both components combine into a net negative impact on commercial activity for the overall component.

Click here to view the full Commercial Leading Indicator PDF.

Commercial Leading Indicator Jumps in Fourth Quarter 2024 by Amit Sidhu | Economist | BCREA